http://www.pokerhand.org/?5635768

bukithepro on the Button was a nit played 14/10..
Caldas983 was a WALE played 63/33..

I 3betted a decent size preflop with AA.. the button and the sb called.. the sb calls there with a very wide range.. he defended OOP vs mine 3bet earlier with Q4ss.. the button is kind of nitty and I think his range would be suited AJ+/pairs/Suited QJ+..

Flop comes 396cch. I cbet $31 in 51 and the button raises. The sb folds. I am not happy in this spot. I decide to call and reevaluate turn. Turn is pretty much a blank 5. I check and he shoves $ 128 in $183.

I fold here because I think his valueshove range is 33/66/99 which are 3 combo's. And his semibluffing range is KQcc/KJcc/QJcc. Also I think these flushdraws might take a freecard a decent amount of the time.

I think fold is the best play on the river. But my question is, can i fold on the flop?

I dont know how to edit my post yet. but obviously 33/66/99 are 9 handcombo's

interesting spot

i could never fold the flop in this situation on the flop, i would like to think i would make a great read here vs a nitty player, but i probably reraise the flop and have a hard laying it down if he shoves,( if 33 66 and 99 are in his range, then so must be TT JJ QQ KK, although you would certainly expect KK to get in it preflop and also the QQ to be played more aggro preflop, but no info provided on his pre and post flop aggression and style) If he just calls the reraise and no flush card hits on the turn i probably just shove it in on the turn. Although i am not in love with the 5 on the turn as it completes a str8 if he called w/ 78, unclear if that is in villian range given the info provided.

It certainly is annoying to stack off when you have 200+ bb stack and obviously your AA will be good vs certain players here. I think it mostly comes down to your read on your opponent. If this nitty guy is pretty passive i think you are likely correct to be concerned about a set, but if he is more aggressive i think there is a much bigger chance his flop raise was a "tester play" and when you just called he thinks he can push you off an AK type hand w/ his pocket pair or drawing hand.

i know that was pretty non committal, i am very curious what errol and tim think about the hand

hg

alrighty then

i went and took a shower and this hand started bouncing around in my skull, so i thought i would take another shot

lets look at how nits play

in general they are in general not too aggressive, unless they have a big hand
very selective preflop
understand implied odds
understand position at least on a basic level
they dont play a lot of speculative non pair hands

so looking back at the preflop action
the nit cold calls a preflop raise from the cut off
what is his likely range, or more helpful what is not in his range

78 sOOted connector, he is not getting the multiway action he would normally want w/ a small sOOted hand
small pocket pairs- i am not sure he calls a late position raiser w/ a hand that is mostly going to be worthless post flop so i dont think 33 or 66 are in his range, although it does depend a bit on the PFR and we have no info on this player, since he is getting very good implied odds to take a full stack of $100 if the PFR is a tight player
I think the Nit raises KK and QQ for sure, and possibly JJ, and then likely calls 77-TT type middle pocket pairs which i think he hopes for a set or a good flop w/ small cards
I think AK probably gets in a 3 bet vs a late position pfr, but might just call- no info given on preflop 3 bet %
I think ATs+ and AJ+ would make a call but not reraise
i think JTs+ are also possible in calling range

now which of these hands does he call a 5x 3 bet from the big blind
looking at stack size he is getting about 16/1 to call the extra $13
I think this call narrows his range from what he would call the first 3x raise
specifically
i think he folds any AJ-, and probably AQo
I think AKo AKs AQs will all call
i think he folds any 78s type hand for $13 raise, so a pair with a flush draw is unlikely w/ 9c8c hand
i think he folds any QJs or JTs type hand for $13 raise
I think KQs is possible in a multiway pot, but he could easily fold it preflop as well fearing domination
I think he calls w/ any pocket pair he called w/ the first time given the implied odds and deep stacks he and the 3 bettor have and he has position

so after all that what is left in his range to call the 3 bet preflop?
I think his pocket pair range is 88-JJ, but lower pairs also possible
His sOOted card range is AQs AKs, and maybe KQs

Now looking at post flop action and knowing nits tend to be passive (although not all are) until they have the goods
I guess i am right back where i started in the previous post, so the questions become

Does this nit like to make minimum "juicer" type bets w/ a big hand?
Will this nit make a "tester" raise with an overpair like TT or JJ hoping an AK AQ etc type hand will fold?
Will this nit make a semibluff type raise w/ a hand like 77 88 or 55?
Will this nit make a semibluff raise with a big drawing hand?
Will this nit 2 barrel a semi bluff after opponent calls flop raise and checks turn? or will he take a free card?
Is this nit capable of a "big bluff"?

what is your equity vs these different ranges of hands?



the first range assumes opponent is capable of bluffing a hand like 77 55 88 on the flop
and semibluffing KQs draw, and raising flop w/ over pair like JJ or TT
Board: 3c 6c 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.771% 76.77% 00.00% 41802 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 23.229% 23.23% 00.00% 12648 0.00 { JJ-22, KQs }


the second range assumes Nit will not semibluff any hand like 55 77 88 on flop, but could semibluff a KQs draw or raise w/ an overpair like TT JJ

Board: 3c 6c 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.545% 62.55% 00.00% 15480 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 37.455% 37.45% 00.00% 9270 0.00 { JJ-99, 66, 33, KQs }


the third range assumes Nit will not semibluff any hand like 55 77 88 on flop, but could semibluff a KQs draw, but would not raise w/ an overpair like TT JJ on the flop

Board: 3c 6c 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.037% 36.04% 00.00% 4638 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 63.963% 63.96% 00.00% 8232 0.00 { 99, 66, 33, KQs }


The last range assumes Nit wont raise an over pair like TT or JJ, He wont "test" raise w/ a hand like 77 88 55, and wont semibluff raise a big draw w/ KQs

Board: 3c 6c 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 12.525% 12.53% 00.00% 1116 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 87.475% 87.47% 00.00% 7794 0.00 { 99, 66, 33 }


so we see from all this that if the nit is passive you are likely toast, but if he is a more aggressive type nit, then his range is too wide and your equity is too high to fold

so we are back where i started w/ you gotta know your Nit to make the decision

However, hopefully the process of putting the opponent stats, style, and actions on various streets togethor to make your decision in a tought spot was helpful to those starting out and trying learn how to start reading the opponents.

hg

hg

Thnx for you well explained post!

Ofcourse I can't help myself reading this while i am playing 12 tables, so my reply will be somewhat short compaired to your post

I Didnt post the 3bet stats of the nit, because i had like 100 hands of him, which is enough to label him as a 'nit' because he doenst play many hands. But is not enough to get relyable 3bets stats.

Initial raiser is a LAG reg..

I agree with your preflop range of the nit. So we can think about how nits play these typs of hands.. I think only bad nits will "info"raise their pairs that didnt connect with this board. And if these bad nits inforaise their pairs, they will deffenitly will try to get to showdown with them. I have yet to meet a nit who turns showdownvalue type hands into blufs. So untill i do i will keep mucking aces here and they can take the pot with their pairs that didnt connect.

I also think the same with draws. Their are not many draws in their range, because I have the Ac.. And even if they flop a draw, they are likely to play them passive. So i expect them to call it down and jamm if they hit it.

So taking this what i think how they play their calling range on the flop it leaves us with sets.. or compleet airballs like AQo or KQss that missed this board completely.. I don't think nits will set up 200BB blufs (he also has the fish behind him on the flop)

So taking all this in concideration, i think folding the flop is probably the best move here.

i think i agree with the fold now, i wasnt so sure before i went through the analysis. i learned a lot going through the analysis and trying to really think about how nits play as well as your additional comments in your last post have convinved me that he most likely had a set and will try to keep that in mind in the future. Laying down the AA is frustrating, but not as frustrating losing 200bb.

I really reccomend to the players that are starting out and just learning to go through a few hands similar to what i posted above. I found it very helpful for a situation where a poor analysis and hasty decision could be quite costly, it takes a while to recover from a 200 bb mistake, a lot less time than practicing analyzing a few hands away from the table.

hg

It really comes down to how nitty or aggressive the guy is. Against the super nits it's an easy flop fold unless you have a crazy image yourself and against anyone who has a normal amount of aggression it could be a flop call/re-evaluate turn or just push.

You need to think whether the guy is raising that flop for value with hands that you beat (ie. JJ-KK). For nits they usually aren't - they love playing super passive with an overpair that's not AA when deep like that. So I would say since he's almost never raising a worse hand for value, now he's either bluffing or has you crushed.

At the same time, he called preflop and then called your 3bet. So he likely doesn't have KK and probably not QQ either. So he's either raising a set or air/87/flush draw. I'd heavily weight it to a set from a 14/10 guy.

I don't hate the flop call either, because once he pushes turn it's a pretty easy fold in this specific scenario against this nit. I think the question that you posed is right - can you fold on the flop. Against anyone but super nits the answer is no - but this guy is possibly a super nit so maybe you can. It really depends on your read and you would be in the best position to answer.