Game # 2616738085 - Texas Hold'em No Limit EUR 0.25/0.50 - Table "Gelves"

Players(max 6):
sunilg (EUR 51.14 in seat 1)
BasseBoy (EUR 29.17 in seat 2)
ItsAllMath (EUR 50.48 in seat 3)
sahlen (EUR 14.19 in seat 4)
Hero (EUR 53.76 in seat 5)
dzikson999 (EUR 120.36 in seat 6)

Dealer: ItsAllMath
Small Blind: sahlen (0.25)
Big Blind: Hero (0.50)

Hero was dealt: Tc - Ts

dzikson999 Fold
sunilg Fold
BasseBoy Fold
ItsAllMath Raise (1.12)
sahlen Fold
Hero Call (0.62)

villain is a 21/15 player over 160 hands.
He has a button steal % of 70!
Fold to 3bet 100% on the button so far.
Aggression Factor per street 4.5 / 10 / 1
A 3bet obviously takes the pot down a very high
% of the time but with his aggressive stats I felt
I could win more off him by calling his pre flop raise
and playing against his super wide range.

Flop Ac - 3h - 2h

Pot €2.51

Hero Check
ItsAllMath Bet (2.00)
Hero Call (2.00)

I check to villain expecting him to bet almost his entire
range. He does have some Aces in range but also a lot of air.

Turn Ac - 3h - 2h - 6d

Pot €6.51

Hero Check
ItsAllMath Bet (5.00)
Hero Call (5.00)

A fairly big bet, still not convinced he has anything much yet,
but if he bets big on the river I plan to fold as his river aggression is low.

River Ac - 3h - 2h - 6d - Td

Pot €16.51

Hero Check
ItsAllMath Bet (13.50)
Hero??? [eff €42.36]

Now we hit the set, he has bet big again so i expect him to have a fairly decent hand here.
The question is, do we raise or call?
What range of hands does he call with. He's definitely good enough to fold top pair top kicker here.
Maybe even folds 2 pair type hands? With only 162 hands on him its difficult to know how loose he will
call down in this spot. If he folds all 2 pair hands he's only going to call the raise with hands such as
sets / str8
22 [3]
33 [3]
66 [3]
hands we lose to
AA [3]
54s [4]
54o ? 54o right at the very bottom of his range??
If this is in his range that's another 12 combos and
the raise doesn't seem such great value any more.
My image at the time was very solid and I hadn't shown
too much aggression on this table up to that point
so if he was thinking about what hands I would raise
with, I don't think he would expect me to raise 2 pair
type hands such as AT, so he has to put my on a set at least.
Which makes you wonder if he would even fold the set of 2's in this spot.

Maybe I'm giving him too much credit about his folding capabilities!

Is this a definite river raise for value or do we just call?

It's a super-fist-pump check-raise all in on the river. He's easily value betting a lot of worse combos including all lower sets (9 combos) that will likely call your check-raise. Considering all the missed draws he might and probably should be calling with 2pair or worse sometimes too.

And from a game theory perspective, if you're not check-raising this river for value here then you basically have no raising value range (since this is the absolute best hand you can have in this spot) and therefore you can never bluff this river (ie. with a missed draw) which is not good, especially since he's so aggressive and has such a wide opening range.

I shoved the river and he snapped with 54o.
Sickness!

I'm analysing all my big losing pots to death lately to make sure I'm not making any huge errors. Thanks for your input Atta. I was fist pumping at the time but then when i analyzed it maybe I was giving the villain 2 much credit. I think you're right he would call with 2 pair.
Still learning and getting there.

JimmyChances wrote:Game # 2616738085 - Texas Hold'em No Limit EUR 0.25/0.50 - Table "Gelves"

Maybe I'm giving him too much credit about his folding capabilities!

Is this a definite river raise for value or do we just call?

very very few 50 nl players of any style will lay down AK AQ AJ here to a river shove
even though they expect to see at least A2
in general a bigger bet/shove will be higher EV at these games since so few players can get off tptk or better, they will call, so make em call a big bet

my condolences on the "lucky" river

hg