Hi all, looking for some thoughts on this hand. Its a spot ive found myself in quite frequently; overpair to a super drawy board.

Dude is 29/18 but only over 50 hands, first time he has raised a flop... the raise is weird cos its so small on the flop (with so many draws a set would surely raise bigger?)...I would assume he would 3 bet TT and possibly 99 pre flop since we are 3 handed, turn makes 77 v unlikely.

Can folding the flop ever be bad? I mean even against AcX we are 50/50 and turn card is going to be tricky regardless of what it is. Presumably having the Jc would change things significantly?

Any thoughts are welcome

Boss Media (IPN) No-Limit Hold'em, €0.50 BB (3 handed) - BossMedia Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (€47.25)
Hero (Button) (€58.97)
SB (€24.90)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J
Hero bets €1.75, 1 fold, BB calls €1.75

Flop: (€3.75) 7, 10, 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets €3.75, BB raises to €8.50, Hero calls €8.50

Turn: (€20.75) 7 (2 players)
BB bets €12, Hero ?

Personally I dont want any action in this pot in this situation. Maybe thats abit weak. If he is aggressive and dont 3bet preflop with Ax (with a club ace) he perhaps beeing aggressive with that.

Anyway I would fold to his raise on the flop and find better spots, to many ways to be beaten on. If he is bluffing he deserve the pot I think. But a guess is that he have a flush/straith or a semibluff to nuts.

/Johan

morrizio wrote:Boss Media (IPN) No-Limit Hold'em, €0.50 BB (3 handed) - BossMedia Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (€47.25)
Hero (Button) (€58.97)
SB (€24.90)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J
Hero bets €1.75, 1 fold, BB calls €1.75

Flop: (€3.75) 7, 10, 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets €3.75, BB raises to €8.50, Hero calls €8.50

Turn: (€20.75) 7 (2 players)
BB bets €12, Hero ?

wow, what a super ugly flop- (sort of)
that being said a lot depends on the opponent and situation ie player positions
given you on button, he in bb, and his stats are not totally ridiculous
looking at the hand it is a scary flop, but it is the kind of flop that hits a portion of his range super hard
middle cards/ middle pairs/sOOted club hands. However it misses a majority of his hands really badly
big non club hands/ small pairs/ Ace baby that are non likely to continue or bluff

given that you are likely to take it down a lot of the time w/ a Cbet i can see firing on the flop protecting from any over cards getting free chance, but i would be more tempted to check. Any T gives me outs vs str8/2 pr/set/smaller flopped flush and controls pot size if i am behind, a J also could improve me to best/give boat draw. If i bet i am really only getting called by better hands/big draw that i am about a coin flip against AND IT IS A SUPER GOOD FLOP FOR OPPONENT TO CHECKRAISE for the same reasons i mentioned above, it hits you really hard or is very scary when you miss which will happen way more often. In this case you have the rare in between hand w/ overpr and gutshot. Overall here i think the best play is a check and see if a brick hits turn, i would muck to a bad card and a big bet. i would call a reasonable bet, if i had Jc i would call a pot bet on turn if a club hit and reevaluate any river card/bet. I think check call gets more value at less risk than betting to fold out his air. he might check check bet or check bet check his air giving you value a Cbet would lose. Most aggro and even a lot of passive players will take a bluff shot on turn if you check flop behind, only most aggro w/ barrel river again as bluff in my experience.

i dont think turn 7 changes much (helps 78,88,99, and may help you to best 2 pr if he had 89)
i would call turn , and muck to river bet
Notice this much easier to play in position, think about if you had to act first- YUCK

Overall thinking about value, pot size, and hand strength. i think caution is best path here. use your position to your advantage

hg

OOPs

hockeyguy wrote:
i dont think turn 7 changes much (helps 78,88,99, and may help you to best 2 pr if he had 89)
i would probably call turn- it is a tough situation , and muck to river bet

if you dont like variance i cant fault a turn fold

hg

my thanks to Morrizio

Great question and timely post

i have been playing alot of 50 nl recently for videos and working on a few areas of my game. And beause i have been running really really really good (hopefully at least partly because i am playing well). Any how
after having spent some time thinking and blabbing about his posted hand, i just got done playing this hand. Withe the thought process on how to play his hand fresh in my head.

***** Hand History for Game 2135169674 ***** (Bodog)
$50.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, April 05, 06:11:28 ET 2011
Table Ziaton (max 6) (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: prayontheriver ( $71.16 USD )
Seat 2: hockeyguy99 ( $48.25 USD )
Seat 3: bigdog49 ( $35.46 USD )
Seat 4: AAAA_killer ( $42.80 USD )
Seat 5: cashout69 ( $32.60 USD )
Seat 6: bubbyjr1286 ( $79.60 USD )
hockeyguy99 posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
bigdog49 posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to hockeyguy99 [ Qc Qd ]
AAAA_killer calls [$0.50 USD]
cashout69 raises [$1.50 USD]
bubbyjr1286 folds
prayontheriver folds
hockeyguy99 raises [$5.25 USD]
bigdog49 folds
AAAA_killer calls [$5.00 USD]
cashout69 folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ts, 8c, 9d ]

virtually same flop, overpr w/ gutshot, 2 tone flop instead of monotone
hockeyguy99 checks- what worse can call? hits part of his range very hard, but misses most of his range badly. do i want to get check raised by a kind of a spazzy opponent? a check disguses my hand
64/24/17
3/3/0
after 25 hands
very goofy cold call of 3 bet, not AA or KK given partial stack would shove, or QQ (+ i got QQ)
JJ maybe, TT 99 88 , could be but i hope not, 9x 8x Tx 7x 67 maybe but less likely Ax also possible
really hard to limit a 64/24/17 guy this early in hand, easy to fear the worst but rememer he is a spazz

AAAA_killer bets [$6.50 USD]
hockeyguy99 calls [$6.50 USD] i could be best, lets see what happens

** Dealing Turn ** [ 2d ] nothing changed
hockeyguy99 checks i invited first spasm w/ check, continue w/ plan
AAAA_killer bets [$26.00 USD] i must confess i tanked, i think the last part of what i wrote in morrizio post helped a lot, aggro spazzes wil spaz here alot
hockeyguy99 raises [$36.25 USD] trust my read, get the last bit in
AAAA_killer calls [$4.80 USD] WTF he calls? see below his cards
hockeyguy99 wins $5.45 USD
hockeyguy99 shows [Qc, Qd ]
AAAA_killer shows [2h, 4h ]- LOL HOLY SPAZZILICIOUS, i dont even have to sweat a draw on river
** Dealing River ** [ Td ]
hockeyguy99 shows [Qc, Qd ]
AAAA_killer shows [2h, 4h ]
hockeyguy99 wins $84.60 USD from main pot

hopefully the moral is thinking about hands away from table can really help
naturally i dlo expect to be beat here sometimes, but this one worked out well

my thanks to Morrizio

hg

Sweet analysis hg... I can see how checking back is the best play, its something I did consider after I played the hand, I guess I was worried about having a balanced c-betting range on this flop but in reality i would probably be checking back air alot here since there is so much for villain to continue with. In fact I think he probably has more hands which raise then flat call since people play draws aggro in general.

I think there is a fear of 'giving away initiative' when it comes to aggression. Since everyone is taught to be the aggressor etc checking hands with value seems bad, but obv when you break it down in certain situations its correct. Of course when we check back and he leads two streets we are playing a guessing game to an extent as to whether he has it, but i suppose its a case of evaluating his range, how often is he bluffing and make a judgement on that.

Anyway its really interesting since ive been trying to find spots to use villains high aggression against them (I recently played a hand where I c/c 3 streets w TP since the dude was a 'bet whenever checked to' type guy). The hand I posted would have been a good spot for a similar play

Anyway great chat, next time il know what to do

One last wee thing... how does the board texture affect our decision, ie monotone v rainbow? since I have no club there are more crappy turn cards than in your hand, does it make it closer between checking and betting (ie bet for protection against any random club)?

morrizio wrote:Sweet analysis hg... I can see how checking back is the best play, its something I did consider after I played the hand, I guess I was worried about having a balanced c-betting range on this flop but in reality i would probably be checking back air alot here since there is so much for villain to continue with. In fact I think he probably has more hands which raise then flat call since people play draws aggro in general.

I think there is a fear of 'giving away initiative' when it comes to aggression. Since everyone is taught to be the aggressor etc checking hands with value seems bad, but obv when you break it down in certain situations its correct. Of course when we check back and he leads two streets we are playing a guessing game to an extent as to whether he has it, but i suppose its a case of evaluating his range, how often is he bluffing and make a judgement on that.

Anyway its really interesting since ive been trying to find spots to use villains high aggression against them (I recently played a hand where I c/c 3 streets w TP since the dude was a 'bet whenever checked to' type guy). The hand I posted would have been a good spot for a similar play

Anyway great chat, next time il know what to do

i dont think you have to worry too much about balancing your range at 50nl and below in any situation as it is only of value vs thinking players, and not to be condescending but very few 50nl players are wondering if your range is balanced on Cbet/blind stealing/3 betting or anythin else. I never gave it a thought when i played 50nl i just played a tottally ABC value style. My overwelhming thought was bet made hands for value or bet air if i think he will fold which i guess to a certain degree did balance my range.

as to the initiative issue, i totally get that as i used to bet because i was the pfr so i must cbet. Slowly i realized that it is about getting value and that there are situations where a check call gets more value depending on situation and opponent. i basically divided opponents into 3 categories
passive- loose or tight doesnt matter- when they bet beware, only difference is loose can show up w/ wierd hands
Taggish- i just played them like they were me range and aggression wise
Aggro/spazzy- way more aggro than normal tag, call them down and give their bets less respect
These basic categories worked quite well from the Warren Buffet quote dept
"it is better to be approximately correct, than precisely wrong" so i didnt try to be overly precise

i am much more comfortable now getting value by calling now (like all things poker it takes practice), but i will say i find check calling the flop is easy, but it is more of a gut check to check call the turn, and even more so the river. But when you are right it is a great feeling and you are looking for someone to high five

just remember to consider opponent, i would cbet vs a passive and fold to any raise in these 2 hands
most tags would give strength of their hand away, call=draw medium pair, bet/raise beware it is at least nut draw, they will almost always check down/fold their air weak pairs
my opponent was a spazzy in this case, hence the check call

i think a monotone flop increases chance of a semibluff from tag or aggro w/ A hi draw on flop- watch for the shove on a draw
a good tag will be very aggro w/ set, but typically on turn blank- per atta22, your equity greatly increases when turn bricks or board pairs. a good tag will also fast play any made flush or straght from the flop
however most tags at 50nl are not good or have not seen tims advice on these type hands
why fast play str8 or flush?, you are almost certainly a big fave but a turn card could cripple your hand if a better str8 is possible, a 4 flush hits, or boards pairs, while a set is a fave on flop(unless it gets allin you will usually be behind) it a huge fave if turn bricks and draws wont fold even when their equity is cut in half
passive players rarely bet anytthing but the nuts A or K hi flush on these type hands

gl hg

Great post guys. Nice discussion! I have some things to learn about this. Nice hand HG!