Someone once told me that any time you get All In with only a pair you are probably behind. Did I make a bad call here? My opponent "insta-shoved" the turn and I thought he was protecting a top pair type hand. I only had 50 hands on him. He was 38:12 VPIP:PFR but seemed rather passive post flop.

UTG ($11.85)
MP ($14.20)
CO ($5.10)
Hero (Button) ($18.95)
SB ($6.65)
BB ($1.10)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, K
1 fold, MP bets $0.60, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.40, 2 folds, MP calls $0.80

Flop: ($2.95) 10, Q, 3 (2 players)
MP bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.95) 9 (2 players)
MP bets $11.30 (All-In), Hero calls $11.30

River: ($28.55) A (2 players, 1 all-in)

Results:
Hero mucked K, K (one pair, Kings).
MP had Q, Q (three of a kind, Queens).
Outcome: MP won $27.15

After having had time to think about this hand I have decided that it was clearly a terrible call.

I was putting him on AQ but what really thru me was the inst-over-shove. What is with that? I figure it was a bluff or a desperate bid to save a weak hand.

However, putting $11 into the pot on the turn was never gonna be a good move. I was behind AA, QQ, TT, 99, QT, Q9, T9 or KJ (which was unlikely). AQ would have got there on the river.

Can anyone tell me more about the philosophy behind overbets and insta-shoves?

Also, any advice on folding over pairs?

the first thing to look at is your 3 bet size, too small less than 2.5 x his raise
you are only behind AA, charge him to chase you, i typically go 3.5 to 4 x his raise as a 3 bet
microplayers call with a hand and fold without a good hand with out much regard to your raise size, so charge em more when they have a hand

secondly, i am not typically giving him credit to beat my KK on the qtx flop, most micros sloplay a monster(even tho this guy didnt)
i would have raised his flop lead, notice if he 3 bet shoves flop it is more clear earlier in the hand that you are probably behind

instashoves and overbets are somewhat player dependent, so notes are very helpful since micros players dont vary their play much
in general at micros an instashove/overbet is a big hand or a draw they dont want to get called, the 9 on the turn was a bad card as it completed several possible hands to overtake you KJ, 9t, 99, and it also created or improved some hands as well, jt or 98, so clarity was not enhanced.
a QTx9 board is right in a loosish players wheelhouse, this is a difficult situation. I try to look atheir style, street aggression, overall situation and go with my gut, if i dont have a clear read, i tend to lean towards a fold, but i do call a significant portion-maybe 35-40% of the timesometimes i an right, sometimes not- i havent done filter on this situation, but my gut is that i do pick off more bluffs or semibluffs to be profitable, but most calls i have some read/history on pusher.

folding overpairs isnt easy, but i prefer to do it ealrier in hand when pot/cost of error is smaller for being wrong.

gl hg

Hi IAMINARUT,

Just to follow up on what hg was saying, below is some stats to try and make the situation a bit clearer.

Lets get Poker Stove out and do some number crunching.

Pre-Flop
KK - obviously a really good hand, all-in if you can get it

Flop
I think a 38:12 VPIP stat player is going to be willing to continue on this flop with at least the following hand range:
AA, KK, QQ, TT, 33, AKs, AKo, AQs, AQo, KQs, KQo, KJs, KJo, QJs, QJo, QTs, QTo, J9s, J9o and possibly ATs, ATo

Poker Stove results for this range of hands is
-----------------------------
Board: Ts Qh 3d
Dead:

equity win ti pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.561% 61.81% 00.75% 60583 733.00 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 37.439% 36.69% 00.75% 35961 733.00 { QQ+, TT, 33, AQs+, ATs, KJs+, QTs+, J9s, AQo+, ATo, KJo+, QTo+, J9o }
-----------------------------

As you can see, you are a 61% favorite against that range so maybe a raise on the flop instead of calling would have been better to charge the drawing hands or even push the drawing hands off the hand at that point.

Turn
Not a good card here. I dont think you can take much from the fact that the guy pushed. It could mean either strong hand or week hand / bluff (this is where knowing the player comes into it). Based on the range above what are they going to be playing now? Probably something like AA, KK, QQ, TT, 33, AQo, AQs, KQo, KQs, KJo, KJs, QTs, QTo

Poker Stove results for this range of hands is
-----------------------------
Board: Ts Qh 3d 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.110% 39.08% 02.03% 877 45.50 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 58.890% 56.86% 02.03% 1276 45.50 { QQ+, TT, 33, AQs, KJs+, QTs, AQo, KJo+, QTo }
-----------------------------

Conclusion

At this point you have to call $11.30 to win $17.25. To make this a profitable call your hand needs to have a 65% equity (think i've done the maths right there, by all means someone correct me if im wrong) even when adding a buffer for complete bluffs, it still isnt good enough odds to call.

Its taken me 15 minutes to work that out and you only had about 15 seconds. I dont think it was a terrible call, it was a tough spot to be in, so dont be too hard on yourself. If for arguments sake you had 3-4x raised on the flop, you would have probably had the odds to call an all-in push on the turn even after the 9 came and also given yourself an oppertunity to take the pot down straight away. I think one of the things to take from this hand is the importance of agression although in this case you were still going to get stacked as you came up against the top end of their range but there is nothing you can do about that. Just do the hg cussin, re-compose yourself and move on to the next hand

Hope this helps,


Gon3Fishing.

thanks for the help GONE,
you make several great points w/ poker stove

what equity KK has at various points in the hand and that it takes some work away from the table to keep improving your game. Once you have done the analysis in Pokerstove, it tends to stick in your mind so next time the same/similar situation comes up you have more info and can use it in the 15 or 20 seconds you have to decide at the table.

back to that hand for a final thought, i think if you raise flop and he shoves you can narrow his range quite a bit and perhaps get off the hand if you feel you are beat, as you have no redraws. Notice if you are beat you are way farther behind than you are ahead if he is pushing a draw. A push by him is almost always a draw or i dont care what you have i think i have it beat. so looking at possible range

draw hands KJ
have you beat hands AA,QQ,TT, or bottom set, or KK( rare but it happens) he thinks are good

once the 9 hits the turn i think you can get off the hand if you raised flop and he just called, i would not want to put any more money in the pot, but if he shoved flop he is less likely to have a draw since he has no reason to believe you wont get it all in. If you think about how you/most players play a draw. Even when you play it agrressively, do you 3 bet shove for your stack on the flop vs a pfr 3 bettor? not the common play, so this combined with a flop raise helps define his range on the flop. The more you use pokerstove and think about how most players play certain hands in common situations it helps to define and narrow their range as the hand develops. You wont ever be right all the time, but since most players play most hands in certain patterns, especially at micros, you can typically go with the common read and watch your bankroll grow.

FYI_ given how you got to the point in the hand, i probably would have made a crying call when he lead shoves the turn 9 unless i had specific reason not to, remember he led flop and you just called which looks weak to him after you 3 bet preflop, he can put you on a wide range of hands and be pushing an underpair and a draw he picked up per previous post.

gl hg