Hi All

I am probably seeking some comfort in asking this question but i do think it poses the question in general, was this a good or bad fold. I keep telling myself it was a good fold, but nagging thoughts in my head say i should have called. Also, the villian in this case had only played a two hands so i had no read, but later on in the session i noticed his stats were around 55/12 so that is probably what is nagging me now as maybe i was bluffed. Then again i tell myself he probably hit 2 pair or something. I will show the hand below and update you on my thoughts during the hand at the end.


***** Hand History for Game 8948540163 *****
$50 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, February 23, 13:15:38 EST 2010
Table Speed #1381873 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 6/6
Seat 5: AlexDLL69 ( $34.50 USD )
Seat 6: BabyBubu ( $55.89 USD )
Seat 1: BackCoM ( $67.96 USD )
Seat 4: RobertKK ( $50 USD )
Seat 2: Zaitchik111 ( $53.98 USD )
Seat 3: dodoehopoder ( $51.75 USD )
AlexDLL69 posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
BabyBubu posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to RobertKK [ Kh Kd ]
BackCoM folds
Zaitchik111 folds
dodoehopoder folds
RobertKK raises [$1.50 USD]
AlexDLL69 calls [$1.25 USD]
BabyBubu folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7d, Qd, 9d ]
AlexDLL69 checks
RobertKK bets [$2.49 USD]
AlexDLL69 calls [$2.49 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6s ]
AlexDLL69 checks
RobertKK bets [$6.04 USD]
AlexDLL69 calls [$6.04 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ As ]
AlexDLL69 bets [$14.65 USD]
Your time bank will be activated in 6 secs. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
RobertKK will be using his time bank for this hand.
RobertKK folds
AlexDLL69 does not show cards.
AlexDLL69 wins $34.19 USD
BackCoM has left the table.


As you can see i had KK (one of the K was diamond) and the flop was 7Q9 all diamonds. I had over pair and as a result of this and the potential for 2nd nut flush i bet 3/4 pot. Villian flat called. Turn was 6 spades and again i thought i was good, thinking maybe he had a diamond draw like me, straight draw or maybe QX, so i bet 3/4 pot which was called again. The river was a disaster as it brought one of the 3 cards i did not want to see, an A. Now it was not the A diamonds which i would have liked to have seen as it meant i had the nut flush. I decided to check for showdown and he bet $14.65 into a $20 pot.

Now at this stage i am getting better than 2/1 odds on my money (was actually 2.4/1) so i only had to be right around 31% of the time for this to be a profitable call. I folded as you can see and i am asking do you think this was correct or not? At the end of the day all i have is a pair of KK and i am crushed to any slow played flush made on the flop, any A or any two pair.

I think it was a correct fold, like to hear your thoughts please. Many thanks for reading.

Robert

bobbyboy1974 wrote:Hi All

I am probably seeking some comfort in asking this question but i do think it poses the question in general, was this a good or bad fold. I keep telling myself it was a good fold, but nagging thoughts in my head say i should have called. Also, the villian in this case had only played a two hands so i had no read, but later on in the session i noticed his stats were around 55/12 so that is probably what is nagging me now as maybe i was bluffed. Then again i tell myself he probably hit 2 pair or something. I will show the hand below and update you on my thoughts during the hand at the end.


***** Hand History for Game 8948540163 *****
$50 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, February 23, 13:15:38 EST 2010
Table Speed #1381873 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 6/6
Seat 5: AlexDLL69 ( $34.50 USD )
Seat 6: BabyBubu ( $55.89 USD )
Seat 1: BackCoM ( $67.96 USD )
Seat 4: RobertKK ( $50 USD )
Seat 2: Zaitchik111 ( $53.98 USD )
Seat 3: dodoehopoder ( $51.75 USD )
AlexDLL69 posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
BabyBubu posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to RobertKK [ Kh Kd ]
BackCoM folds
Zaitchik111 folds
dodoehopoder folds
RobertKK raises [$1.50 USD]
AlexDLL69 calls [$1.25 USD]
BabyBubu folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7d, Qd, 9d ]
AlexDLL69 checks
RobertKK bets [$2.49 USD]
AlexDLL69 calls [$2.49 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6s ]
AlexDLL69 checks
RobertKK bets [$6.04 USD]
AlexDLL69 calls [$6.04 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ As ]
AlexDLL69 bets [$14.65 USD]
Your time bank will be activated in 6 secs. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
RobertKK will be using his time bank for this hand.
RobertKK folds
AlexDLL69 does not show cards.
AlexDLL69 wins $34.19 USD
BackCoM has left the table.


As you can see i had KK (one of the K was diamond) and the flop was 7Q9 all diamonds. I had over pair and as a result of this and the potential for 2nd nut flush i bet 3/4 pot. Villian flat called. Turn was 6 spades and again i thought i was good, thinking maybe he had a diamond draw like me, straight draw or maybe QX, so i bet 3/4 pot which was called again. The river was a disaster as it brought one of the 3 cards i did not want to see, an A. Now it was not the A diamonds which i would have liked to have seen as it meant i had the nut flush. I decided to check for showdown and he bet $14.65 into a $20 pot.

Now at this stage i am getting better than 2/1 odds on my money (was actually 2.4/1) so i only had to be right around 31% of the time for this to be a profitable call. I folded as you can see and i am asking do you think this was correct or not? At the end of the day all i have is a pair of KK and i am crushed to any slow played flush made on the flop, any A or any two pair.

I think it was a correct fold, like to hear your thoughts please. Many thanks for reading.

Robert

i think the thing to take from this hand is your thought process, you had a reason for your best size, (although i might have bet pot on flop as the A is never going to fold). You thought about your pot odds and whether they were favorable. Obviously the river was a horrible card, which was made more difficult since you had no history info. My general plan is to give credit for a hand if i have no history unless it smells really fishy.
But overall i think your thought process is good, which will work for you in the long run much better than the simplistic "am i beat or am i ahead?"

but looking at an average range of hands for players to call in sb and call down the flop and turn
Ax w/ draw
QK, QJ,AQ, QT w/ or w/o flush draw
67,78,89,9T,TJ type hand w pair and some type straight draw and/or flush draw that missed
77,99 ot even TT, JJ w/a diamond
busted str8 or flush draw
thats a pretty wide range, not too many other hands call turn bet even if they peeled flop light.
The Ace hits a pretty good part of his range and is also a good scare card for him to bluff when you check
i might have tried a smallish blocking bet on river maybe $5 or so, if he pushes i am sure kk no good,
he might stll call w Qx , A rag type hands, but unlikey shove with anything you beat

without history it is hard to narrow range and i get why it started to nag at you after you saw he was a yahoo lag
I think w/o any history it is easier to fold and watch the villian carefully to see if he tries it again vs you
with some history i think his range is wide enough to make a reluctant call
with some history i lean to a call, especially if you saw him bet river after aggressor checks
either play i dont think you are hugely plus or minus EV in the long run
I think almost any non Ace is an auto call on river, although a non diamond 8 or J would make a lot of str8s or 2 pr hands

In close situations usually I try to remember there is almost always about a 10% chance of a bluff per Dan Harrington, this frequently helps push me to call when you are getting good pot odds. I havent tried to analyze the results on these hands over the long run, but my gut tells me i am pretty solidly in the positive in these type of situations. The net effect of factoring a 10% chance of a bluff is you have to be quite certain you are beat to fold when you are gettting good pot odds vs a laggy player. The individual street aggro stats very helpful in many of these situations.

As you move up i think you will run into more of these type stuations, so dont be afraid to go with your gut after you have analyzed and decided it is a close decision. your gut tends to get better the more you trust it

hope this helps HG

Thanks for taking the time to write such a detailed reply, much appreciated.

What you said in terms of possible ranges for this opponent was what i was thinking also, i just did not want to pad out my email to much. I thought he may have AX i.e A7 or A9 and was calling it down with the 2nd/3rd pair as many loose players do, hoping i had maybe missed my flush. Then when the A hit it gives him two pair possibly. I am pretty sure he did not put me on KK thats for sure. Also agree there were a lot of draws out there and the A made the perfect scare card. All in all i simply thought that there were a lot more hands that had me beat than i was ahead of, so folded. I think if i had seen how this players stats developed over the session and was asked again to call or fold my gut may have said call as i saw him do this on a couple of occassions and i think this is why it was nagging at me.

I also agree after thinking about it further, that i should have put a blocking bet in instead of checking as that way i can set the price. If he then raises me i know i am beat and can fold. I think in future if it is a close call i will employ this as until now i have not used that option. I tend to check if i think i may now be beat, and end up giving my opponent the chance to put me to a massive decision on the river.

Playing at 25/50 is developing well. I have only played 4173 hands at this level according to HM but i am showing a good BB/100 of 12.68 so cant complain. Still making silly calls with top pair top kicker and need to get that out of my system before i move up to the 50/100 level. I think this is why i folded the KK on this occassion. I am also trying to stop the crying calls and develping the skill of laying down what may possibly be the best hand from time to time.

Thanks once again for the reply.

Good fold.

Think about what he is bluffing with.

Seriously, that is the key to this hand, and most spots where the villain throws out an incongruent bet. You really need to think about what possible hands the villain can call 2 streets with, and then bet an A river.

He either called 2 streets because he hit a piece of the board and is hoping another diamond doesn't peel off (or is slowplaying a flopped flush), or he's likely calling down with the Ace of diamonds (perhaps AdQx/Ad9x/Ad7x) hoping to hit the flush. The Ace on the river crushes his entire drawing range. And if he had a hand like KQ or QJ, he would check himself because he's just as scared of the A as you are, and will hope for a free showdown.

The only possible hands that have you beat are straight draws that have a diamond (T8/JT, perhaps gutshots like KxJd). I think they're less likely, but you need to have a read on the player to know how he'd play those draws.

i just wanted to note the use of incongruent by atta22, not a word you see used too often. very nice