Hi guys line check at 100NL

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Hi guys line check at 100NL

Postby legian62 » Tue Jan 14, 2014 4:21 pm

Hi guys,

After not much play for a longer period of time I decided my poker career needed a boost. I took a shot at 100NL with a very limited bankroll. After 1500 hands I am up 1.5 buyins. So far so good. I want to check a line here I took at the turn. Most of all to improve my thought process.

At the time of the hand I had about 10 hands on villain. I could somewhat deduce he had a regular tight aggressive style.

Here’s the hand:

CO: $103.00
BTN: $100.00
SB: $42.08
Hero (BB): $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with Kh Kc
1 fold, BTN raises to $3, SB calls $2.50, Hero raises to $11, BTN calls $8, 1 fold

Flop: ($25.00) Jh 2h 7s (2 players)
Hero bets $16.00, BTN calls $16

Turn: ($57.00) 8c (2 players)
Hero bets $32.00, BTN raises to $73, Hero calls $41

River: ($203.00) 8d (2 players)

Final Pot: $203.00
BTN shows 8s Js
Hero shows Kh Kc
BTN wins $201.00
(Rake: $2.00)

Of course J8s was a surprise. But for sake of this example let’s assume opponent is indeed a TAG.

Villains range:

preflop 3-bet calling range: 77-JJ, some QQ AK AQ AJ KQ.
Cbet-calling range: QQ, AJ, JJ, 77, sometimes 88, 99, TT

Villain will fold to my turn cbet with 99 TT most of the times, lets say 6 combos (again, he will fold some on the flop). If I bet the turn he calls with QQ AJ (6 combos + say 6 combos of AJ, because he will fold sometimes preflop) = 10 combos the will call turn and probably river. That’s 12 combo’s that will give $ 100,- profit. He can also call or raise with JJ (3 combos), 77 (1 combo, an estimate because he will fold some preflop) and 88 (also 1 combo). That makes 5 combos I will lose to.

In the hand villain raised the turn, I had to call 41 to win 203. I would have to win 20% to make this a profitable call. I know I was in bad shape but thought I was pot committed because he may bluff sometimes.

To make a long story short: if I bet the turn I will win 203 x 12 combos + (57+32) x 6 = 2436 + 534 = 2.970. And I will lose 203 x 5 = 1015. Im not sure about my calculation method here :D

Conclusion: betting the turn is profitable. But is it more profitable than checking the turn? I suppose so, because I will lose value from hands like AJ and QQ. Villain will probably check these hands all the way to showdown. And if he starts betting, he will have a monster or a bluff. Probably more times a set than bluffing.

Any comments are appreciated

Cheers, Erik
ot
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Re: Hi guys line check at 100NL

Postby palmtreemagic » Wed Jan 15, 2014 1:59 pm

just gonna chime in real quick here but if villain had AJ which would be an interesting 3 bet flat call given stack sizes but he would i guess be hoping you were 3 betting TT or lower.... or QQ which is worth a 4 bet for most people, I don't really see him checking behind on the turn. especially the QQ. you cbet and he called that, which he would do with AJ or QQ, or raise you a fair amount of the time. when you check back a non heart 8 there given he only has 10 hands against you he is going to figure he is good against all hands but QQ KK AA (15 combos if he has AJ) or KK AA (6 combos) if he has QQ. he isn't going to figure the 8 made your gutshot or anything.

I see a lot of people betting that on the turn. and possibly even bluffing if he had AK or one something like TT 99 etc. If you want to talk about value vs his hand range there yes he will call you with the few AJ and QQ combos, but he's folding just about everything else except maybe if he wants to make a move with 99TT figuring 50% of your 3betting range is going to be AK maybe AQ if that is in there, meaning unlikely you hit the J and he's got the gutter if he is beat. so by checking I'd say you might be able to get more value because you can induce a bet or bluff by a worse hand than yours.

just my thoughts at a quick glance didn't really go through all the math that heavily.
love those J8 idiots though, I'm seeing plenty of them at 50NL as well right now, profiting nicely but sometimes taking some rough hits that eat into said profit.

what is your current BR just out of curiosity? and where are you playing? or did you say that and i missed it. will skim again.
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Re: Hi guys line check at 100NL

Postby legian62 » Wed Jan 15, 2014 5:42 pm

In my experience a lot of weaker regulars play 3bet pots face up post flop. If they call a cbet they are likely to have a hand. Im not sure though if the same goes for regulars at 100nl. If villain would bluff often after i chEck the turn i would definitely like the check/call.

Im sitting on app 10 buyins playing at partypoker. Im taking this shot because i think i can survive at 100nl. So far i have seen plenty of bad players. If things go wrong i would have drop to down a level. 100nl is more exiting and more interesting as the regulars are better players. Lets hope i can stay here and climb up!
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Re: Hi guys line check at 100NL

Postby palmtreemagic » Thu Jan 16, 2014 8:44 am

that may be true. i'm just going off what i've seen these past few days at 50NL.
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Re: Hi guys line check at 100NL

Postby atta22 » Thu Jan 16, 2014 7:05 pm

Glad to hear things are going well with your return legian and that you're working hard on your game!

To be honest that 8c on the turn is a terrible card for you and a great card for villain's range. Against a standard tight-aggressive regular I would even consider check-folding on the turn.

His range on the turn is now comprised of lots of pairs (think of suited connectors that called your squeeze and floated the flop with gutshots) and potentially a flush draw. If you check, he will bet his flush draws and 2pair+ hands and check behind his one-pair hands that you beat which you can likely get value from with a river bet.

If you bet the turn with that sizing you are pretty much pot committed since you still have some outs against 2pair and beat his oddly played flush draws or poorly played AJ/Jx.

It comes down to whether you will get 3 streets of value from AJ and KJ. If villain will call turn and river push with those hands then I would bet/call turn. If villain will fold those hands at some point I would not bet turn and probably check hoping it gets checked behind which puts me in a super strong spot on the river where I'm probably 80%+ to win. If he bets on the turn he has me beat except for a naked flush draw or really oddly played pocket pair/Jx. Most TAGs won't bet Jx if checked to on the turn.

Another thing to consider is that your bet sizing are probably too big on the flop which makes it pretty much impossible to bet/fold on the turn. I would size my flop bet smaller so that I can potentially bet/fold on the turn if I'm playing a tight opponent who I'm willing to bet/fold against*.

*Note that there are a ton of opponents who I would never bet/fold against on the turn because they're spewy and are pushing random Jx and pocket pairs. It really depends on your opponent. You need to consider your opponent's range and strategy even before you decide your squeeze sizing and flop continuation bet sizing - since as you can see the stack to pot ratio drastically affects your options that you get to on the turn.

I hope this helps!
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Re: Hi guys line check at 100NL

Postby legian62 » Sat Jan 18, 2014 11:17 am

Thanks Tim!

If you were in this spot what would you think of villains preflop 3bet calling range? And what would be the difference if villain were opening from the small blind? I ask this because I get the idea that TAGS at 100nl have a wider range than I thought.

Good point about the bet sizing, I did not take into account the importance of the sizing. As a matter of fact usually I just press the 3/4 pot button, just because it is convenient.

Erik
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Re: Hi guys line check at 100NL

Postby atta22 » Mon Jan 20, 2014 5:08 pm

Villain's call preflop depends on how he views you. If he knows you rarely double barrel bluff then he can float any flop he hits a piece of and potentially take it away often. He also was getting pretty decent odds to call.
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Re: Hi guys line check at 100NL

Postby JimmyChances » Wed Jan 22, 2014 5:22 pm

Thought I'd add these hands to this 3bet discussion.
Definitely lots of interesting hands occur in 3bet pots.
Just so we can see how game flow, and understanding how an
opponents range might be widening as we get some history
on our opponent.

Table #52656903 - Cabrio's Casino
Starting Hand #2460281556
Start time of hand: 16 Dec 2013 22:40:49
Last Hand #2460281248
Game Type: HOLD'EM
Limit Type: NO LIMIT
Table Type: RING
Money Type: REAL MONEY
Blinds are now $0.50 / $1
Button is at seat 2
Seat 1: ElitePoker77 - $100
Seat 2: Jachtgodin1973 - $160.84
Seat 3: kabotajoe - $156.15
Seat 4: jackyzigg - $120.01
Seat 5: QueenietheFirst - $80
Seat 6: Genitruc - $129.48
Shuffling Deck
Moving Button to seat 3
jackyzigg posts small blind ($0.50)
QueenietheFirst posts big blind ($1)
Dealing Cards
Dealing [6 d][7 h] to QueenietheFirst
Genitruc folds
ElitePoker77 folds
Jachtgodin1973 raises to $3
kabotajoe folds
jackyzigg folds
Hero has requested more time
Hero is using the time bank
Hero has 18 seconds remaining in the time bank
Hero raises to $9.50
Villain folds
Pot sizes: $6.50
QueenietheFirst doesn't show
Hero wins $6.50


Villain snap folds


Table #53030502 - The Glenthorne
Starting Hand #2478669558
Start time of hand: 16 Dec 2013 22:51:55
Last Hand #2478668303
Game Type: HOLD'EM
Limit Type: NO LIMIT
Table Type: RING
Money Type: REAL MONEY
Blinds are now $0.50 / $1
Button is at seat 3
Seat 2: LuckyPearcey - $87.24
Seat 3: Jachtgodin1973 - $100
Seat 5: Webers81 - $47.31
Seat 8: QueenietheFirst - $109.30
Seat 10: tablon46 - $123.46
Shuffling Deck
Moving Button to seat 5
QueenietheFirst posts small blind ($0.50)
tablon46 posts big blind ($1)
Dealing Cards
Dealing [A d][K d] to QueenietheFirst
LuckyPearcey folds
Jachtgodin1973 raises to $3.50
Webers81 folds
QueenietheFirst raises to $11.50
tablon46 folds
Jachtgodin1973 has requested more time
Jachtgodin1973 is using the time bank
Jachtgodin1973 has 9 seconds remaining in the time bank
Jachtgodin1973 calls $11.50
Pot sizes: $24
Dealing Flop [A h][6 c][7 h]
QueenietheFirst bets $12
Jachtgodin1973 folds
Pot sizes: $24
Taking Rake of $1.20 from pot 1
Jachtgodin1973 has received 5 additional seconds in the time bank (14 total seconds)
QueenietheFirst doesn't show
QueenietheFirst wins $22.80
Seat 2: LuckyPearcey - $87.24
Seat 3: Jachtgodin1973 - $88.50
Seat 5: Webers81 - $47.31
Seat 8: QueenietheFirst - $120.60
Seat 10: tablon46 - $122.46
End of Hand #2478669558

Villain times down and calls the 3bet.
Already annoyed cos i have 3bet him once on another table.
Snap folds on Ace high dry board. We can learn that he is calling
with mid pocket pairs and maybe some lower broadways.



Table #53030502 - The Glenthorne
Starting Hand #2478677829
Start time of hand: 16 Dec 2013 23:04:46
Last Hand #2478677470
Game Type: HOLD'EM
Limit Type: NO LIMIT
Table Type: RING
Money Type: REAL MONEY
Blinds are now $0.50 / $1
Button is at seat 2
Seat 2: LuckyPearcey - $102.62
Seat 3: Jachtgodin1973 - $104
Seat 8: QueenietheFirst - $100
Seat 10: tablon46 - $118.96 (away from table)
Shuffling Deck
Moving Button to seat 3
QueenietheFirst posts small blind ($0.50)
LuckyPearcey posts big blind ($1)
Dealing Cards
Dealing [K s][K d] to QueenietheFirst
Jachtgodin1973 raises to $2.50
QueenietheFirst raises to $9
LuckyPearcey folds
Jachtgodin1973 calls $9
Pot sizes: $19
Dealing Flop [6 d][3 c][4 s]
QueenietheFirst bets $9.50
Jachtgodin1973 calls $9.50
Pot sizes: $38
Dealing Turn [A h]
QueenietheFirst has requested more time
QueenietheFirst checks
Jachtgodin1973 bets $19
QueenietheFirst has requested more time
QueenietheFirst calls $19
Pot sizes: $76
Dealing River [9 h]
QueenietheFirst checks
Jachtgodin1973 bets $66.50 (all-in)
QueenietheFirst has requested more time
QueenietheFirst is using the time bank
QueenietheFirst has 14 seconds remaining in the time bank
QueenietheFirst calls

This time villain snap calls pre. Probably even wider call
range.

Considering game flow and that I've 3bet him 3 times in fairly quick succession
and also his sizing on river is this call or fold?

My thought process on turn, was check to him and let him bluff, cos i felt he
was a little tilted and getting sticky.
On river i was planning on folding to 1/3rd pot to 2/3rd pot bet.

When he shoves river for max value what value hands is he repping?? {99,slow played flopped sets}
How wide is his bluff range up to his value range?
Also, I think this sequence of hands is great to see just how some regs
react to some preflop aggression and how their range will expand in certain spots.

In the first hand he snap folded to my 3bet.
2nd hand, used time bank, and called 3bet in position, and check folded
on Ace high board.
In 3rd hand, snap called 3bet and got super sticky throughout the hand.

*SPOILER ALERT FOR OPPONENTS HAND*

98s (clubs)
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Re: Hi guys line check at 100NL

Postby JimmyChances » Wed Jan 22, 2014 5:27 pm

legian62 wrote:





To make a long story short: if I bet the turn I will win 203 x 12 combos + (57+32) x 6 = 2436 + 534 = 2.970. And I will lose 203 x 5 = 1015. Im not sure about my calculation method here :D



Any comments are appreciated

Cheers, Erik
ot


You need to factor in fold equity to this calculation. But calculations are tough to figure out
on the turn with one street to come. If you just want a straight up value calculation
just find the total number of calling combos of hands in our opponents range. If there's
one more combo of hands we beat up to hands we lose to, we have a value bet.

Hope this helps.
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Re: Hi guys line check at 100NL

Postby legian62 » Sun Jan 26, 2014 6:08 pm

Hey Jimmy,

Nice example there and nice pokername lol. I can see the game flow in effect there. So far I haven't played a whole bunch of hands at 100nl (app 2-2.5k) so I'm still trying to figure out what are the 'average' basic skills of a 100nl tag. So far I have noticed it can very from very nitty to ultra agressive. At 50nl I noticed a lot of them are auto-piloting since they are playing 6 tables at the same time, at 100nl some of them are probable more aware of what's going on. The 3-4-5 betting game is something I need to work on.

Erik
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