Well I played this hand earlier. It was against a 33/11 guy with 2.8 aggression. Prior to this hand I had cbet bluff 3 straight times and been caught each time, but then I stacked a guy who tried to catch me cbet bluffing a 4th time with a set. I am cbetting 88% on this table. Not much history here, I just started playing 100NL but I bought hand histories on him so I have 5.3k hands on him.

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Bodog)
$100.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, June 25, 10:42:11 ET 2011
Table Therlow (max 6) (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( $91.55 USD ) - VPIP: 50, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 1.5, Hands: 22
Seat 2: Player2 ( $92.80 USD ) - VPIP: 33, PFR: 26, 3B: 8, AF: 3.3, Hands: 5011
Seat 3: Player3 ( $194.39 USD ) - VPIP: 29, PFR: 11, 3B: 1, AF: 2.8, Hands: 5509
Seat 4: Player4 ( $77.85 USD ) - VPIP: 70, PFR: 24, 3B: 10, AF: 1.8, Hands: 508
Seat 5: Hero ( $192.75 USD ) - VPIP: 19, PFR: 16, 3B: 4, AF: 3.6, Hands: 70217
Seat 6: Player6 ( $89.80 USD ) - VPIP: 36, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 1.5, Hands: 738
Player3 posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
Player4 posts big blind [$1.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Kh Kd ]
Hero raises [$3.50 USD]
Player6 folds
Player1 folds
Player2 folds
Player3 calls [$3.00 USD]
Player4 calls [$2.50 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7h, Ts, Qs ]
Player3 checks
Player4 checks
Hero bets [$8.00 USD]
Player3 raises [$16.00 USD]
Player4 folds
Hero calls [$8.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Th ]
Player3 bets [$17.00 USD]
Hero calls [$17.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ Td ]
Player3 checks
Hero bets [$42.00 USD]
Player3 calls [$42.00 USD]
Hero shows [Kh, Kd ]
Hero wins $157.50 USD from main pot

When the min raise comes in I know I'm against a hand that is trying to extract value from me. He could possibly have a straight flush draw, but that's going to be pretty rare.

If we're 100 bb deep I'm trying to it in here, but since we are so deep I thought he'd probably only be getting it in with sets. Raising the turn seems kind of crazy too as I think it will scare off the hands I want to be in the hand. When he checked the river I knew he had a queen (90% of the time) and I just went for about 2/3 pot for value.

Should I be trying to stack him on the flop? Is my line too weak?

Thoughts?

Hi,
As I read through the hand at first I thought you probably should have tried to stack him off on the flop, and maybe it would have worked, probably depending on his kicker e.g. AQ would have likely called. But looking again I would have probably also called, in the words of Atta22 "will a worse hand call or a better hand fold?" No better hand will fold and some worse hands will call, so pretty tough decision for me.

Looking at the turn you could have bet the set (10's) knowing that you can't really represent it as you have been so aggressive. This would only work if he was a thinking player and wouldn't put you on a 10.
(In the moment I would have also called, it is a bit of a scare card .)

Only thing I would do different on the river is bet 3/4 but that's just because I'm lazy and Party Poker has the 3/4 pot button .

Well played though, you managed to get a good amount from him. That's just my opinion, hope it helps. I know I'm no pro and not really in a position to give advice, but it sortv helps me to read through these situations.

Kitson

hi emit

great question on how much value can you get, since it applies not just to this hand, but to every had you play it it forces you to think about what range the opponent has and their playing style.

As to this hand, 2 things i look at are bet size and street aggr, no info on street aggr, but i think bet size can be illuminating.

pot on flop is 11.50, 3 players to flop
opponents check to the raisers- standard
you bet 8 which is ok, although w/ 2 opponents on a drawy board i probably bet 9 or 10 or pot
your bet makes pot 20, opponent mn check raise- hhmmmm
pot is now 36 and it cost you 8 to call
is he trying for value? or trying to get you to fold/testing your hand?
hard to say since bet is too small to accomplish either goal, a common microstake play that could be either one. It is a non standard w/ Qx since it is unlikely to fold better or get called by worse, especially oop since when they get called they are typically going to be in a bad way on turn when they dont improve most turn cards

no info on previous hands that your cbet bluffs didnt work, did you 2 or 3 barrel any of them, or just 1 cbet and check down, or cbet and fold to a raise. if you had cbet and folded to a raise it might increase the chances he is trying to buy pot cheap or w/ a draw. His bet size is too small if he trying to get value, but that is not uncommon so this is a good example of where notes and street aggr can help alot.

Overall i think only a draw/ 2 pair+/or AQ are calling a raise, since you have position i think a call is fine since you can control pot size and ensure a bet goes in on the turn. If opponent had position i would be more likely to reraise.

pot is now 36+8=44
turn T is a good card for you, it likely doesnt improve opponent and doesnt appear to improve your hand
it counterfeits his outs if he has QJ, virtually eliminates his TT and QT, so you are really only worried about 77 and QQ (he is a 1% 3bettor so a call by QQ preflop possible) and a draw hitting
now bet size, 17 is a very weak bet into 44,

is he milking a set? maybe, but i would expect a bigger bet
is he betting a made hand like AQ? seems a strong possibily since you just called flop, bet still too small
is he semibluffing a draw after you called a flop CR that was begging to be called light? unusual and bad bet size, if you want a fold, bet like you mean it to give them a reason to fold, also gets more value when you have a made hand, it makes for tough decisions over the long run for your opponents
is he aware of bet size importance at all? doesnt look like it, bet size tells are rampant at 100nl and lower

what worse hands can call here and/or on the river? since better is never folding and typically raising
I think all Qx hands call here since he was willing to bet them he is likely to call any reasonable bet here and on the river, the key point is a raise here grows pot and makes a half pot significantly larger on the river resulting in more value- my basic plan is to bet or raise likely best hand until i have a good reason. A weak check raise and weak donk bet are not usually going to have an overpair beat.

I think all 8 out str8 draws and flush draws call a reasonble bet. pot is 61 so something around 45 or 50 will likely get called giving him less than 2.5/1 on a 4/1 against to hit draw. Since you are both deep his implied odds are better so you MUST bet bigger. Also you will get no value from a missed draw on the river

if you raise and he folds, he likely had a weak hand and was folding river any how unless he spiked an obscure out like AK hitting a J or 99 spiking a 9, so no harm done w/ raise vs a weak hand.

If he has a monster he is typically going to let you know now and make a big 3bet or shove, givin that your hand is somewhat disguised by your flop call and the T is no apparent help, i would like to see a raise on the turn to about 48, this makes the pot about 110. If opponent calls pot is about 140 and so are both your stacks. If he donks (as he should w/ any hand that beats you) a river A, or Q or flush or card (non K) that completes the str8 you will have a decision to make depending on his bet size. If he checks a river blank then you can bet river for value somewhere in the 50-80 range depending what you think he has/bet size he might call

AS played
obviously the river T is a good card for you as it forfeits a set of 777 and completes no hand to overtake you, you only lose to QQ or Tx both of which were already ahead of you. it also forfeits his Qx kicker problem so QJ KQ are no longer worried about AQ
pot is now 11+16+16+17+17=77 ish
i like a bit bigger bet here Qx is going to have a very tough time folding to even a pot size bet here especially since you just called flop and turn.

So i think there was more value on the table vs his entire range Qx, draw, bluffing weak hand, monster hand sloplayed, lucky suckout Tx. The first 2 are more likely than the latter 2 and the middle one a raise protecks against a bad beat

When in doubt i try to stick to my basic plan which is to bet or raise with the likely best hand until i have a good reason. It isnt always easy, and sometimes i lose more on a specific hand than a more cautious approach would have, but in the long run it has been more profitable than my previous more paranoid style

I assume opponent had AQ or QJ?

thats my 2 cents
gl hg

Good reading! Good post!

It was AQ and I might have been able to stack the guy, but I think that's kind of crazy to go for the stack when that's likely the only hand I would be able to stack and I would get stacked by AA and sets (obviously the 3rd 10 would have saved me from a set of 7s though).

hi agaib
my main point was just thsat i think there was more value possible against his entire range especially on turn and river. Since very few hands get to the felt , especially when both players are deep, you should try to focus on getting maximum value in each situation and not thinking i shouldnt bet because i cant stack him.

gl hg