Hi all,

I played a very decent session yesterday and was able to win 2 buyins at 50nl One hand at the end of the session was particularly interesting for me:

***** Hand History for Game 342691428 ***** (Absolute)
$50.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, January 24, 04:17:16 ET 2011
Table DENNIS WAY (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Seat 4: VILLAIN ( $48.50 USD )
Seat 5: small blind( $28.33 USD )
Seat 6: big blind ( $52.60 USD )
Seat 1: early pos ( $55.60 USD )
Seat 3: HERO( $96.99 USD )
small blind posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
big blind posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Qs Ac ]
early pos folds
HERO raises [$2.00 USD]
VILLAIN raises [$6.75 USD]
small blind folds
big blind folds
HERO calls [$4.75 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3d, 4c, Kd ]
HERO checks
VILLAIN checks
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2c ]
HERO bets [$9.00 USD]
VILLAIN calls [$9.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 7s ]
HERO checks
VILLAIN bets [$12.00 USD]
HERO folds
VILLAIN wins $12.00 USD
VILLAIN wins $30.65 USD from main pot

Villain stats:

VPIP 20 PFR 14 3bet 4.8 (7 at button)
CBET 55 Fold to CBET 57
Agression 2.8/2.6/2.5 - 32%/36%/29%
2.3K hands

From these stats I deduce that this guy is a decent but somewhat standard/careful TAG-player.

This was my thinking during the hand:

His 3bet range is 7%. So this must mean he is 3betting a lot of aces and pocket pairs. The flop is Kxx. I didnt want to bet out of position so I checked. He also checked. Because he seems to bet his made hands or strond draws I figured he would have bet the hand if he had a K. (AK or KQ, perhaps KJ). I assume this because I think he is straightforward and because of the CBET stat. He didnt bet the flop, so I decided to bet the turn. I thought he would have to give up all Ax type hands unless he would think I was bluffing. But I assumed as I think he is straight forward that a little pressure would force him to give up the hand. But he called. So now I think he doesnt have Ax but has a pocket pair like 99 TT or perhaps JJ. A strong river bet might be enough to push him of the hand but I got scared that my theory was flawed and that I would end up losing a big pot over nothing. So I checked the river and decided that any bet from his side would force me to fold.

I think before I played this hand I have two choises: I can play it safe, see a flop and play fit or fold. This would save me from making mistakes. Or I play the hand agressively and try to win the hand with post flop handreading. Eventually it will make me a better player if I play it like that but sometimes I doubt this is the way to play because it induces so many mistakes. But...Im trying to become a better player so any comments on this handreading are vey appreciated!

cheers, Erik

Hey Erik, this is an interesting spot.

First, OOP, a hand like AQ can be difficult to play in a 3bet pot. I generally prefer a 4bet in these spots for a couple reasons: It gives you a chance to win the pot preflop and it gives you initiative in the hand. If he has a hand like JJ or TT and you put out a big barrel on the flop you could take it down repping AA, KK, or AK. Also, the 4bet lets you know where you are with your hand. By flat calling you've narrowed it down to 7% of his range. If you 4bet and he flats you can narrow his range down further and can generally assume he doesn't have AA, so if you hit an ace your more than likely good. If he shoves you pitch it and wait for a better spot.

Now back to the hand. The check on the flop could mean a couple different things. He could have a pair like JJ or QQ and he wants to keep the pot small. He might have a king with out the ace kicker, such as KJ, or KQ and again wants to keep pot control. He might be trying to set a trap with trips as well. If he had air, he would probably Cbet to try and take the pot (check his cbet 3bet pots stat to see though)

When he calls your turn bet, it's highly unlikely he has air. His range still has a lot of PPs like TT, JJ, and QQ as well as hands like KQ.

The bet on the River looks to me like a value bet with a hand like KQ that he is pretty sure is good after your check. Could be QQ or JJ as well, I think he checks behind TT or lower, becuase that bet is pricing you in to call with a hand like JJ. I like the fold. As HG and atta always say, ABC poker is what will win you the money at these stakes.

Well thats my analysis, I'm hope my thoughts could be of some use.

Good luck at the tables!

i agree w/ cudaflu

i would only add AK or AA to his range as he doesnt think (and rightly so) he will get action very often on a Cbet, but if he checks he thinks TT JJ QQ will call or take a shot on turn. He likely doesnt expect you to call 3 bet w/ lesser pp preflop, so he doesnt fear an A. I will make a similar play on such a very dry flop that i have totally crushed and there is no draw. I am fine with the turn bet as it could fold out a lesser pp, and builds your image if you get called etc although i mostly do it vs very nitty types that are more likely to fold since they dont want to call and have to call river as well. Against more stubborn opponents i will just chk/give up. One last note vs more stubborn opponents i am more likely to fold preflop to avoid the tough spot.

hg

fyi
for those playing 25nl and lower i would cbet any Kx hand on the flop above if i was the 3 bettor as those players will call down quite a bit lighter than 50nl players on average

hg

Great interesting post! With that 7% 3bet on the button of his I think I would either fold or 4bet. Depending on how I think he is thinking about me. If I have been splashing around alot in earlier hands etc. U must have some "fold to 4bet when made 3bet"-stat on that player with that amount of hands on him? I think I would make a choice based on that. If its high, say 70%+ I would try a 4bet. Otherwise fold.

The math behind this. Let me try, im not so good at it yet. Ill try. The pot is after his 3bet is 9,5$, lets say 10$ to make easier. Lets say. If we 4bet with 20$. We have to have him folding atleast 67% of the time to make a profit (We have to be successfull 2 times to earn 20$ and have to fail 1 time to loose the 20$ again to be even).

Is my calculations right? Correct me plz if not. (HG?)

Anyway I guess this player have a much lower "fold to 4bet when made 3bet" cause of his low PFR. And with this AQ its best to fold then. I guess he has like 40% and below. Would be interesting to hear what that stat is on him. Can u get it Legian?

/Johan

Thanks for all your responses!

Your analysis keeps me thinking and puzzling...First of all I didnt even consider placing a 4bet preflop, might be a good option.

Johan: my opponent folds 25% (8). So in this case 4betting would give me a 75% chance of getting a 5bet (in which case I fold), or a call. That would bring me to a situation where Im out of position, in a pot of appr 40 Dollars. If I want to use my initiative Id have to place a cbet. So that would mean I committed allready 35/50 of my stack. His handrange might consist of AK (not everybody would 5bet this), QQ, KQ, JJ, maybe TT. If I place the Cbet on this flop I may get all hands to fold except AK and KQ (not sure though). So all together this might be a profitable approach...on this flop. But what if the flop is not so dry?? Wouldnt that leave me being a sitting duck?

Yes being postflop oop with AQo was difficult. I thought that I had a shot because he didnt seem very agressive. Cudaflu, his cbet after 3bet is 50%. So not sure what to make of that. The suggestion that he might slowplay his hand makes it harder to read.

So if the choice is 4bet or fold, in this hand I choose to fold.

Cheers!

Oh, only 25% "fold to 4bet when 3betted". Then its a easy fold for me!

I did play a specific opponent today who had a pretty high 3bet in the BB. Like 16%. He had also ha high "fold to 4bet when 3bet" of 70+%! So I did 4bet him pretty much. I earned some on this guy.

Johan

good discussion guys

4 betting vs possible light 3 bettors is something i am workin on, with mediocre reesults so far

but i would just add to be careful about 4 betting range and fold to 4 bet stats as you need a pretty big hand sample for these to be confident in these stats. For instance cbetting after a 4 bet and the total sample is 8 hands, if opponent 4 bet w/ AA AA AA KK KK KK QQ AK and had run into 4 Ace hi flops w/ the KK KK KK QQ his cbet after 4 betting is likely to be lower than normal as he is less likely to cbet these and wouldnt normally run into this many A hi flops especially since callers of 4 bets are going to be AK heavy hand range. Similar scenarios are possible/probable when looking at fold to 4 bet type stats as 4 bet pots are not common below 100nl and are almost always AA KK AK QQ below 100nl. Even at 100nl and 200nl i have not run into much evidence of light hands in 4 bet pots

gl hg

After reading one of the articles that come with HEM I did a little experiment. I created an alias out of 4 of the best players in my database. These players played 60.000 hands at 50nl and together they have won 2500 dollars.

I checked some of the stats. I found out that they are losing money if they are calling a 3bet from cutoff or button. They call app 34%. This shows how difficult it is to play after a called 3bet. So I suppose its best to be very picky about what/when to call and what not.

There are a lot more interesting things to see. I just checked it globally. I.e.their 4bet range is 2.6%. Calling a 4bet 43%. These numbers are by no means a rule of how to play right? I mean if you start to attack the light 3betters I could imagine your 4bet range expanding. Its not clear if these guys are playing like that. Probably not.

interesting experiment w/ the alias combining top players at 50nl

i think the results show a couple things at this level. That most players at this level have a very tight 3 bet range. If the better players are still losing $$$ when they call a 3 bet in late position the simple explanation is they are dominated by big hands which makes sense since we know few players at 50nl or lower 3 bet light.

I think these results also show what hand range these better players call a 3 bet with. Since they are winning players it is safe to assume they reraise AA KK QQ and typically 3 bet AK. So whats left for them to call a 3 bet with? JJ TT 99 and a lot of big Aces AK (realize they typically 3 bet AK but far less likely to 4 bet AK in my experience as i imagine they have discovered they mostly run into AA KK QQ AK at these levels when they get action-YUCK) AQ AJs maybe ATs or a sOOted connector. So if we look at this range vs likely range of typical 3 bet at these levels AA KK QQ AK JJ. The calling range is in bad shape even in position as they are going to miss most flops and are going to be against a big made pair or dominated by a better Ace which really kind of kills any adavantage of position when they are so outvalued. Typically Position allows you to lose less when you are beat and win more when you are best, but in these situations the best they can typically do using position is lose less- Ouch!!

Almost all of the light 3 bets at 50nl or lower come from tags defending vs loose stealers or very LAGGY/maniac types or short stackers. Each of these are pretty easy to deal with. As it happens I have been messing around alot recently with more aggressive 4 betting in other situations from these vs lighter 3 bettors at 100nl a lot and some at 200nl and what i have found is generally bad results in these situations. I have just not been able to force enough folds to be profitable, so i have looked pretty spewey with some of my 4 bets which got me some looser action later, but not enough to make me want to make more spewey 4 bets. So i am trying to stick more to the basic Atta22 value style until i find a reason not to. Thus far up to 200nl at bodog and 100nl at Carbon i can see no reason to be overly aggressive 4 betting vs light 3 bettors. I would reccomend the same for anybody playing 50nl or lower as they are other areas to work on that are more common at these games that will make you more money. Specifically that is the level i really started to 2 barrel more to fold out weak hands from the non calling station types. I am still working on that.

i didnt understand the 4 bet stats of 2.6% 4 bet range and 43% calling 4 bet range other than to say if you are calling 43% of 4 bet you are either a spew monkey or have a very very tight 3 bet range

hope this is helpful
hg