only had 100 hands on this guy and for some reason my export hand to hard drive isnt working properly so im having to type this out manually.

villain - ninja8bluffer (handnt bluffed yet with nitty stats) vpip15% pfr 6% he was about 10% pfr btn
3bet - 0%

10/25c nl 6 max
stacks hero 31.22
villain 24.89

ep player folds
hero in mp with QsQd raises to $1
co folds
btn villain min 3bets $2
blinds fold

1st 3bet by nit and a min one too, bit suspicious here and decide to just call and reassess on flop.

pot $4.35

flop Jd9c6s
ok flop
hero checks
villain bets 75c
hero raises $3.67
villain reraises allin for $22.89
(his aggression stats on flop were about agg pct 30)

what would you do?

how would you interpret the small lead out and then big reraise. i know donks make this bet
as a weak bluff bet. nits maybe make this bet because they dont want you to fold then get giddy when you raise? any advice here on how you would interpret this line of play would be good and what you would do in this situation would be good.

I doubt you have the best hand here. Min 3bets usually scream a monster, they don't want you to fold. Small bet is to try and make sure you don't leave more than likely, a guy with those stats isn't bluffing often.

Lets look at what he's probably 3betting. AA and KK for sure, maybe AK, QQ, and JJ.

What hands that you beat would he be doing this with? Based on his stats, he's not 3betting AJ or any weaker hand that he would flop TP with, so that's out of the question. I think he folds to your raise with AK or maybe flat calls, probably not shoving it in with overs based on how tight he is.

If he has AA, KK, or JJ your screwed. I'm assuming he doesn't have QQ because that would be pretty unlikely since you hold two of them.

Probably has AA or KK most of the time here. I would fold.

Good luck at the tables!

i agree w/ cud as the flop played out as i dont like to stack off when i am just unsure were i am at
if i had to pick a hand i would say he has 999 and put you on Jx hoping you will call

but i would offer a different line preflop

i would make it 7 or 8 on a 4 bet (no need to over commit yourself), if he shoves you have your answer and can fold w/ confidence you are beat virtually every time as you are not priced in vs a range of aa kk or Ak and his stats would not indicate he will 5 bet JJ-. Although the min 3 bet is a suspicious play, in my experience it is AA or KK far less often than you think from a nitty player (it is more common from laggy/spazzy/maniac type players)and is more commonly TT JJ 99 or other pocket pair or even some wierd play with JTs or 56 sOOted. A min 3 bet is never AJ. These nitty players are usually trying to mix up their range, but are too scared to make a real 3 bet w/ non premiun hands. You would be surprised how many times they just fold to a 4 bet.

100 hands is just not enough to have any idea how he plays big pairs(unless you specifically saw him play QQ+/AK) as he could easily go 100 hands and not have QQ+ to play preflop. Also if you just call w/ QQ you can easily run into a flop like you did and be unclear what the bad guy holds. If he calls your 4 bet and it is a non A or K flop i am going to Cbet and typically be willing to get it in and if he has AA or KK or flopped a set so be it, you are simply destined to lose alot of chips in this situation. There is no magical way to not lose chips when you both have a big over pair or when you have an overpair and opponent flops a set. These coolers even out in the long run so they dont really dtermine if you are a winning player even tho they can be annoying

hg

i folded this hand....
but i feel i should have played it more aggressively pre and post flop...
as it turned out the guys stats even out over the next 300 hands and his 3bet stats ended at 7.7%
also preflop he ended at vpip 21 pfr 17...
but...sometimes it seems you need to play more cautiously til you know otherwise and yet sometimes can you trust them early stats?

i like hockey guys line of play...it seems profitable..knowing if he shoves here you're done but tons of value if he folds.. thanks.