leak busting: EV per position?

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leak busting: EV per position?

Postby legian62 » Tue Sep 07, 2010 4:49 pm

Hi,

I have started to analyze my HEM stats after playing some 6000 hands. I appear to be a winning player in EP, MP C/O and Button. I've been losing money in small blind and big blind. Im wondering if there's a way to measure what one can say about expected value in those spots. I noticed that Im playing near EV, according to HEM. Not really sure what to think of this though. What do the pros score in sb and bb? Are there any guidelines like how many bb/100 is considered normal in these spots?

Ive been multitabling at 3x 25 dollar tables recently and practising 3betting, attacking bb from sb, all in the atta-style. Im gonna look into the specific results to see how Im doing.

Cheers, Erik
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Re: leak busting: EV per position?

Postby legian62 » Wed Sep 08, 2010 4:06 pm

After watching Hockeyguy's leak finder video 105, let me rephrase the question:

are there any players who score in the plus on sb and bb? hockeyguy, in your vid you mentioned that a small loss is probably acceptable. Can you be more specific? Im doing -11bb in the small blind and -37 in the big blind. I have a feeling that is not acceptable :). Im gonna do some more analysis on my play.

Erik
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Re: leak busting: EV per position?

Postby hockeyguy » Wed Sep 08, 2010 11:19 pm

i have always posted a net loss in both blinds

if i just look at hands where i put additional $$$ in the pot beyond the required blind posted
i have positive win rate, but is difficult to win a lot in thes hands since you are always out of position. However, the number of times I am forced to surrender my blind outweighs the winrate of hands
"I choose to play" from the blinds so that my total results from both the blinds is a net loss.

It is my general feeling that my net loss rate in the blinds has increased as i moved up stakes due to more aggressive players forcing me to surrender my blind more often. I will try to look into that and share the results in the near future.

I would be curious as to the results of players from higher stakes in the blinds for comparison

hg
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Re: leak busting: EV per position?

Postby atta22 » Tue Oct 12, 2010 1:16 pm

Those are totally normal numbers in the small blind and big blind. Think about it - you are forced to play with a completely random hand out of position - of course you're going to lose money in the long run in that spot.

I just looked at my SB and BB stats over the course of this year, and I'm losing -11bb/100 in the SB and -34 bb/100 in the BB.

Of course you should be highly profitable in all other positions since you aren't forced to play any hands.

For reference, my other stats:
UTG: 14 bb/100 (with a VPIP of 17.2%)
MP: 18 bb/100 (VPIP 18.2%)
CO: 23 bb/100 (VPIP 25.3%)
BTN: 37 bb/100 (VPIP 33.4%)

Note these are referenced in bb/100 (big blinds/100) - if you want BB/100 (the traditional measure known as ptbb or Big Bets), divide the bb/100 by 2.

Also note how my VPIP increases with my position at the table...
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Re: leak busting: EV per position?

Postby hockeyguy » Tue Oct 12, 2010 7:19 pm

Thanks Tim
great info and something i have been curious about for quite a while

For comparison i ran the same analysis on my stats from bodog at the microstakes
over about 140,000 hands roughly evenly split between 10nl, 25nl, 50nl, and 100nl
here are what my stats look like

UTG: +21 bb/100 (with a VPIP of 14%)
MP: +20 bb/100 (VPIP 15%)
CO: +23 bb/100 (VPIP 20%)
BTN: +48 bb/100 (VPIP 26%)

bb -15.8 bb/100, note that includes +16bb/100 which just shows how bad 10nl players are at bodog as i actually posted a positive winrate at 10nl from the bb over 30,000+ hands, the losses in the bb climbed up up to -25bb/100 at 100nl

sb - 9.8b/100, note -5bb/100 at 10nl up to -12bb/100 at 100nl, again this shows as you move up stakes you find more competent players that will attack your blind more consistently forcing you to surrender more often

One shouldnt draw too many conclusions about differences between my stats and Tim's stats as we play at such different stake levels that the opponents skill substantially affect the game dynamics. I just wanted to share some stats for the lower level games that many OP members play at.

hope this is useful information

Rob aka hockeyguy
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Re: leak busting: EV per position?

Postby legian62 » Sat Oct 16, 2010 5:32 am

Hi Atta,

Interesting numbers! Im somewhat surprised that in general it's okay to be losing big in the big blind. You are doing -34 in the bigblind. If you would autofold every hand in bb your stat would be -17/100. So you were to gain 17 bb/100 by not playing in the bigblind position! I would love to add 17 bb/100 to my winrate!

The conclusion must be that you are only playing hands in bb because of metagame purposes. I will keep doing that since I figure that must be the optimal way to play.

After almost 15.000 hands Im doing -12 and -34 in sb and bb. Im also doing -0.75 in ep. I'd like that number to improve. For the rest Im making a healthy profit.

Cheers Erik
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Re: leak busting: EV per position?

Postby atta22 » Sat Oct 16, 2010 6:37 pm

Hi Erik,

I think you're confusing the stat for bb/100 in the big blind - if you folded every big blind you'd have a loss rate of -100bb/100 (ie. you lose a big blind every hand).

I believe you're referencing -17bb/100 if you folded every hand in every position. But if we're looking specifically at the big blind stats, you'd be losing a big blind every hand for -100bb/100.

So -34bb/100 isn't terrible although obviously not great. It becomes a lot tougher at the higher stakes (my stats I quoted are from mostly $5/10 no limit) because solid players on the button have just such an advantage with position that it's hard to make a lot of money from the big blind.

Cheers!
Tim
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Re: leak busting: EV per position?

Postby legian62 » Sun Oct 17, 2010 4:34 am

ah I see...yes that puts things in a better perspective :)

thanks for straightening that out!

Erik
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