Hi

Its my first post on the site and just wanted some opinions with this hand. I was dealt pocket Aces and get called by a 26/16 (gendrix) and called by 32/19 (Lubenec). I think I played the flop correctly (cont bet could have been higher as the board was super drawy) but after getting called by Lubenec his donk bet really confuses me. I really didn't put him on trips as he played his last trips all in on the flop. I don't really think my turn play was that great, if I 3 bet him I have a tough call if he pushes. My question is am I losing value by not betting the river.

***** Hand History for Game 11124286364 ***** (Party)
$4.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, November 21, 10:17:01 ET 2011
Table Table 201056 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Seat 1: Blackk021 ( $4.00 USD )
Seat 4: BombDashz ( $4.00 USD )
Seat 3: Enipeus ( $4.60 USD )
Seat 5: Lubenec ( $11.26 USD )
Seat 6: WHooDiss ( $5.85 USD )
Seat 2: gendrix ( $3.87 USD )
BombDashz posts small blind [$0.02 USD].
Lubenec posts big blind [$0.04 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to WHooDiss [ Ah As ]
WHooDiss raises [$0.16 USD]
Blackk021 folds
gendrix calls [$0.16 USD]
Enipeus folds
BombDashz folds
Lubenec calls [$0.12 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4d, 5c, 7s ]
Lubenec checks
WHooDiss bets [$0.36 USD]
gendrix folds
Lubenec calls [$0.36 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5d ]
Lubenec bets [$0.87 USD]
WHooDiss calls [$0.87 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 2d ]
Lubenec checks
WHooDiss checks
Lubenec shows [7c, Ac ]
WHooDiss shows [Ah, As ]
WHooDiss wins $2.82 USD from main pot

I think you need to bet the river for sure once he checks to you. His turn bet is really polarizing, he could have some sort of draw there and I think a raise is going to get him to fold a lot so raising the turn bet is kind of sketchy. I think we can raise to like 2.5x his raise size pretty safely to get value from draws and we do have to r/c imo. The river check by him just signifies he's trying to either get to showdown with something marginal or that he has a busted draw. We pretty much have to bet here. Half pot to 2/3 pot probably. That should get us value from like 88-99 and 7x. And since we under repped our hand I think we have to b/c the river.

emtinulb is right, you absolutely have to bet this river. If he had trips, he would 99% of the time have bet out the river himself, since he'll be afraid of you just checking behind an overpair. So you can be super confident that you have the best hand on the river and bet for value against a likely decent made hand that will call.

i think the common thing that happens on hands like this is we tend to remember the 1 or 2 times an opponent did something wierd and our AA or KK type hand is beat and forget the many many times our hand was good and we wished we had bet. While annoying the latter is less memorable i think. Net result is a loss of value in the long run if we dont get used to/force ourselves to bet in more of these spots for value.

if you have decent size database in HM you can filter hands you checked river and look to see how many times you were best and the opponent had a hand good enough to call. It is typically pretty surprising the first time you look, but a valueable excercise. If you have a really big database You can also check to see how often opponents did something wierd that fools you and has you beat or check raises in these type situation as it doesnt happen that often, and it is usually a certain style opponent that does so, not a taggy type.

hg

Hi Guys

Thanks you for the advice much appreciated. I really havent used Holdem Manager that much but I am starting to rely on it a lot more now. I am playing on Party Poker .02/.04 6 man I used to play full ring and have switched over to 6 man in the last couple months.

Definitely looking forward to your site as I think the videos are great.

Thanks
Scott