Today I played a hand and I didnt watched this opponents stats untill after I had a 2nd-barrel at him.

Boss Media - €0.25 NL - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: €17.41
Hero (SB): €38.88
BB: €36.35
UTG: €5.85

Hero posts SB €0.12, BB posts BB €0.25

Pre Flop: (€0.37) Hero has 4c Ad

fold, fold, Hero raises to €0.62, BB calls €0.37

Flop: (€1.24, 2 players) 5s 4s Kc
Hero bets €0.93, BB calls €0.93

Turn: (€3.10, 2 players) Qd
Hero bets €1.55, BB calls €1.55

River: (€6.20, 2 players) 6s
Hero checks, BB bets €3.10, fold

BB wins €5.90


After I saw his stats. Vpip/Pfr of 19/14. 58 hands. Just 2 hands on his fold to Cbet of 100%. Streetaggression 2/0/NA. Fold to BB-steal 50%, 2 out of 4.

My point is that I think that I should not done that 2nd barrel cause if his range and maybe with his 2 folds to Cbet. I always secondbarrel in this situation against a 35/20 player for example. But I guess I can vary this with a check-fold on the turn. He can be folding his low pairs after my 2nd barrel.


If I use pokerstove and I put a 16% calling range on him he is a 55% favorite against my A4. And when then the Q hits the turn he is a 75% favorite with that calling range. So I guess Im on the right track of making a good "giveup" here in this hand and not 2nd barrel. If I just would have watched his stats before doing it

What about this?

Cheers
/JohanW

Hi Johan,

I think that a high 'fold to cbet' stat indicates that he must like his hand when he decides to call your bet. With his low vpip (say 16) Im guessing he could be calling the flop with JJ+, Kx or a flushdraw.
If you decide to second barrel, he's not folding QQ+, Kx, he may fold JJ, he may fold the draw. He could also call with the draw. So most hands he liked on the flop he will like on the turn.

Also who knows a free card might improve your hand. In short I would say that the high fold to cbet tells me already not to second barrel here.

Im curious about other opinions!

Erik

more directly
if there is no obvious draw and they call a Cbet on a K hi flop they are rarely folding to a 2nd barrel

K43 3 tone is pretty dry, unless he has like 77 88 99 AND an Ace hits and you barrel again, a very hi % of micros players are calling until the end once they call flop. Most A rag will fold to the Cbet on K hi flop fearing AK has them dead. Most other non pair hands will also fold to a Cbet on a dry K hi board.

hg

My thoughts are like yours. Thanks guys for your answers.

Johan