Very strange hand, at face value it looks like I should be betting for value, or should I?

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Bodog)
$50.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, May 15, 02:58:59 ET 2011
Table Moon Ballads (max 6) (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 3: Player3 ( $46.25 USD ) - VPIP: 29, PFR: 11, 3B: 3, AF: 1.2, Hands: 300
Seat 5: Player5 ( $53.80 USD ) - VPIP: 24, PFR: 20, 3B: 8, AF: 3.5, Hands: 275
Seat 6: Hero ( $96.10 USD ) - VPIP: 19, PFR: 17, 3B: 5, AF: 4.2, Hands: 45366
Hero posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
Player2 posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Jh Ah ]
Player3 raises [$1.50 USD]
Player4 folds
Player5 calls [$1.50 USD]
Hero calls [$1.25 USD]
Player2 folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qs, 3c, Ts ]
Hero checks
Player3 checks
Player5 checks
** Dealing Turn ** [ As ]
Hero checks
Player3 bets [$2.50 USD]
Player5 folds
Hero calls [$2.50 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ Ad ]
Hero checks
Player3 checks

So I just flatted with the intention of trying to flop something good and get some sick value or something. I had been pretty active at the table, playing around 28/24 so a flat looks kind of out of character to anybody paying attention. Obviously I was SB so i checked the flop with the intention of giving up. The turn gives me a pair, but I wasn't too pleased with it since I thought the raiser would have bet any made hand on the flop, and the fact that he didn't leaves 77-99,JJ, AJ, KJ, AK, or some out of character bluff (he is raising 11% pf). So he makes that turn bet which I called since I had made my hand. I actually intended to check fold the river if he bets over 1/2 pot. Then the 3rd ace comes. I thought about it and decided that my hand didn't actually improve against his range and I should probably still check fold.

This is a very difficult hand though, I have a set with 2nd kicker and I still don't feel comfortable betting for value. What do you guys think? Check Fold, Check Call, Bet Fold, or Bet Call? Also, what about the turn? I don't know if you could really fold the turn as played, but do you think I should lead? I think a check raise would be kind of stupid unless I thought I could force out a random spade draw.

hi jc

i understand the preflop call since it controls pot size w/ a strong feeling hand, but that you fear is dominated, but i might like a 3 bet squeeze more if i had a bit more info on pfr guy. Do you have pfr stats by position in your HUD. It gives you a ton more insight into his pfr range. Some taggy types will be close 11% in any position, some will be 5% 5% 10% 20% in the non blind positions. vs the first type i like a 3 bet since he is a faux tag (more weak/tight tendencies) and will fold almost all of his non AA KK QQ AK range. The other taggy type that just called will fold almost every time w/ a weakish ace AQ- pocket pairs sOOted broadway or sOOted connectors. Furthermore if either has AK and call you have a blocker card and so the likely hood that they miss the flop is increased so a cbet will typically take down most flops. If an A flops it is also more likely you have best hand since by you have an A the chances are less that opponent does, of course it doesnt eliminate it.

Looking more in depth at the situation here is the real question. What are you really wanting to flop w/ AJs? Top pair 3rd kicker? A pair of jacks w/ top kicker, the jacks might be top pair or second pair. How happy are you now? All of these are easy check call hands, but do you want to call a second barrel w/ any of them? Especially if the 3 rd player doesnt go away. Granted a 2 barrel or a raise by 3 rd guy in a 3 way pot tells you all the above hands are very likely no good and drawing thin or dead to a set, but kinda late after you put money in pot. We all been there thinking dam, that was a waste of money, true?

The hand(s) you are really happy to flop are 2 pair, trip JJ, a pair w/ a flush draw, a flush draw, a pair w/ a str8 draw. But which ones are you going to get paid off with? Most of these will slow down opponents from an oop caller that gets aggressive ( flop AJx vs opponent w/ KK QQ AK AQ) or be in a coin flip ( flop JTh4h vs KK QQ) that opponent will likely charge you alot when you are behind, and slow down when you hit your hand, or get it all in when it is basically a coin flip. And you toss in the third player who is very pair heavy set mining in his range (ever flop AJ 2 pair and some other guy hits set, which one of you really had implied odds for big value preflop in a raised pot?)

Will some players stack off AK on a AJx flop, or w/ KK when you hit your flush( although typically on the river when pot is big AND YOU HAD TO CHASE TURN WHEN YOU WERE A BIG UNDERDOG) .FYI- as you move up fewer players will stack off in these situations, at 10nl most will, 25nl many will, 50nl fewer will, 100nl fewer still, 200nl not enough hands to say but hard to imagine the trend doesnt continue. So realizing you will miss most flops and be oop and have to check fold and thinking about these "good" scenarios when you get a piece of the flop, how do you like calling now? Bottom linr is you have to play pretty well postflop w/ this hand in this situstion to show a profit. Can it be done, yes, is there another option to consider.

Lets look at the 3 bet option or a fold option, if the guy is a 5, 5, 10, 20 pfr guy, yikes ajs is hurting vs a 5% pfr range (AA KK QQ JJ AK AQ), i can easily fold here unless it got to be a way pot when it got to me. (notice of course if he is a 5, 5, 10, 20 pfr guy and raised from the co or button a 3 bet is more attractive) But if he is 11% pfr utg he will be folding most of his non AA KK QQ JJ AK AQ hands. he will likely 4 bet AA KK ( but not always, i cant count how many times i have been just called by kk and flopped an A and heard them whine i was lucky, true that but their wussy play let me get lucky) and QQ/AK? Regardless you are done since his 4 bet range crushes AJ. When he folds other guy range will also typically fold. When either one calls they will typically have AK or AQ? maybe JJ TT depending on player, take notes they pay off here. A cbet will win a very high % of the time vs either one of these type hands, can you know which they have? nope. But he cant have both so you will typically have very large fold equity a lot of the time. (dont make a wussy size cbet) This is a time where you put the aggressive in the TAG label. If you get called you can reevaluate.

But now look at the hands that we wanted to flop 2 pair, trip JJ, a pair w/ a flush draw, a flush draw, a pair w/ a str8 draw. All these hands will get big value when you hit them and were the 3 bet aggressor. Think about AJx flop you 3 bet vs AK, it is going to get to the felt almost every time, same if you cbet and hit flush on turn etc etc. I will let the reader think about the other hand flopp combos, but the point is aggression gives you a chance to win preflop, flop w/ a cbet, postflop when you make a very diguised hand that wins a big pot. Which isnt that why you played AJs in the first place to win a big pot?

All that being said, do i still call in a situation like this, i do, but it is very dependent on the pfr guy and what i think of him which is what Tim preaches in all of his video. tight aggressive poker that ADJUSTS TO YOUR OPPONENT TO GAIN MAXIMUM ADVANTAGE OVER THEIR STYLE/MISTAKES

2 final thoughts, i would be more likely to call at 10nl since it controls the pot size and the opponents are more likely to pay off when i make an obvious hand since 10nl players cant find a fold, but more likely to 3 bet as stakes increased. But it wouldnt be bad to 3 bet and get used to it. If yo havent been 3 betting situations like this you can always drop a level or two to practice and get used to it, it is actually a lot of fun. I have frequently moved down a level to experiment w/ more aggro options to get a better feel for how it works w/o having to worry about bankroll issues.

hope this helps
gl hg

emitnulb wrote:Very strange hand, at face value it looks like I should be betting for value, or should I?

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Bodog)
$50.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, May 15, 02:58:59 ET 2011
Table Moon Ballads (max 6) (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 3: Player3 ( $46.25 USD ) - VPIP: 29, PFR: 11, 3B: 3, AF: 1.2, Hands: 300
Seat 5: Player5 ( $53.80 USD ) - VPIP: 24, PFR: 20, 3B: 8, AF: 3.5, Hands: 275
Seat 6: Hero ( $96.10 USD ) - VPIP: 19, PFR: 17, 3B: 5, AF: 4.2, Hands: 45366
Hero posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
Player2 posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Jh Ah ]
Player3 raises [$1.50 USD]
Player4 folds
Player5 calls [$1.50 USD]
Hero calls [$1.25 USD]
Player2 folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qs, 3c, Ts ]
Hero checks
Player3 checks
Player5 checks
** Dealing Turn ** [ As ]
Hero checks
Player3 bets [$2.50 USD]
Player5 folds
Hero calls [$2.50 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ Ad ]
Hero checks
Player3 checks

So I just flatted with the intention of trying to flop something good and get some sick value or something. I had been pretty active at the table, playing around 28/24 so a flat looks kind of out of character to anybody paying attention. Obviously I was SB so i checked the flop with the intention of giving up. The turn gives me a pair, but I wasn't too pleased with it since I thought the raiser would have bet any made hand on the flop, and the fact that he didn't leaves 77-99,JJ, AJ, KJ, AK, or some out of character bluff (he is raising 11% pf). So he makes that turn bet which I called since I had made my hand. I actually intended to check fold the river if he bets over 1/2 pot. Then the 3rd ace comes. I thought about it and decided that my hand didn't actually improve against his range and I should probably still check fold.

This is a very difficult hand though, I have a set with 2nd kicker and I still don't feel comfortable betting for value. What do you guys think? Check Fold, Check Call, Bet Fold, or Bet Call? Also, what about the turn? I don't know if you could really fold the turn as played, but do you think I should lead? I think a check raise would be kind of stupid unless I thought I could force out a random spade draw.

i agree w/ the above, but i would bet like 1/3 or 1/2 pot on river and be prepared to fold to a raise. you will be amazed what they will call with, but they cant call if you dont bet. Even if they fold it benefits you. The more you get them to fold, the more likely they will call light later out of frustatration, sound like a familiar feeling? or even better they will spazz w/ rubbish.

hg

13/11/12/20/9 pfr by position over 300 hands. He cbets 50%.

I didn't want to 3 bet oop because I wanted to polarize my range. AJs is a good hand to flat with as it is a very strong hand but doesn't play well against a 3 bet calling range. I had 3 bet a lot already and throwing a squeeze in there oop with AJ seemed suicidal as I was basically even with both player's ranges. I would have probably 3 bet had the button folded pre, but he was only calling 4% which puts him on a similar range as me (set mine, strongish broadway hands) and a 3 bet from me is not necessarily going to make a pair of 9s fold pre.

During the hand I kind of gave up because I got the feeling that the only hands he takes this line with are AK and KJ. 11% is such a small raising range, and he is so passive. I actually thought at frist that I should fold the turn... To be honest I'm shocked he didn't raise the river. He must have been scared of the spades.

emitnulb wrote:13/11/12/20/9 pfr by position over 300 hands. He cbets 50%.

since he is same pfr w/ small bump on button you can assume he is mostly only playing his card value and not position. He is trying to play "correctly" ie tight, also only 9% pfr in sb SCREAMS weak-tight / a bit scared.
A very good candidate to 3 bet light as he will fold a lot most non QQ+ or AK hands

on the other side is his 50% cbet, basically made pairs and solid draws, very ABC and easy to read and exploit postflop, makes a call look tempting since if you can read his hand you can play near perfect post flop per Sklansky theory of poker

I didn't want to 3 bet oop because I wanted to polarize my range.
while i know this is a popular topic of discussion, but i can say from experience that i never gave polarizing my range a single thought until very recently and against 50nl or lower the number of players that correctly know how to exploit your "non polarized range" is so small as to be unimportant, FYI-I dont see much difference at 100nl either. Now that is not to say i didnt mix up my range w/ broadway and small pairs and sOOted connectors which is more than sufficient to crush games up to 100nl. I view Polarizing range as just a subset of mixing up your range

AJs is a good hand to flat with as it is a very strong hand but doesn't play well against a 3 bet calling range. I had 3 bet a lot already and throwing a squeeze in there oop with AJ seemed suicidal as I was basically even with both player's ranges.
You may be even with their range, if so aggression is even more important if you want to show a profit, especially oop. As to having already 3 betting alot, most players would rather wait for a big hand than 4 bet light, right? I know i do. So keep the pressure on until they playback. Dont give them credit for playing back before they actually do it. Look at my stats below, i 3 bet 32 times and only got 4 bet twice. It simply doesnt happen that much.

I would have probably 3 bet had the button folded pre, but he was only calling 4% which puts him on a similar range as me (set mine, strongish broadway hands) and a 3 bet from me is not necessarily going to make a pair of 9s fold pre.

i assume you mean cold call 4%, not sure how you know this stat, but consider this, if he wont 3 bet 99 preflop he typically will fold to solid 4x 3 bet. I prefer 3 betting squeeze and calling if only heads up for the simple reason 1 player is way more likely to miss flop than 2 players, greatly increasing my chance to out play lone opponent post flop. Also a squeeze wins way more dead money than a heads up 3 bet.


During the hand I kind of gave up because I got the feeling that the only hands he takes this line with are AK and KJ. 11% is such a small raising range, and he is so passive. I actually thought at frist that I should fold the turn... To be honest I'm shocked he didn't raise the river. He must have been scared of the spades.


Once you check, players will make all kinds of goofy plays, especially when a scare card hits, i dont think you can just put him on a nut draw type hand. A check invites a play by opponent, do you ever bet air in position after a guy checks a flop?

by the way , what did he have?

i got curious so i looked at my stats over the last month when i have been trying to be more aggro in certain situations. One of which is situations like your HH. Here are the results and naturally i have a few comments on them below

AJ in blinds vs pfr and caller
Situation occurred 10 times in last 9500 hands this month
Folded 4 times -4bb, 4 times vs very tight pfr guys and once w/ AJo in a 4 way pot
Called 2 times +8bb i check folded once, and check raised once to take down a 993 flop
3 bet 4 times +33bb, they folded 3 times, i cbet a K rag flop once and took it down
I netted 37 bb at 100nl

Looking at AK AQ AJ KQ KJ in same situation
AK 7 times- all 3 bet,
all folded 3 times
1 win w/ cbet
I check down
1 cbet, check fold
Net +8 BB

AQ 3 times- all 3 bet,
all folded 1 times
1 win w/ tptk Q hi board
1 check fold
Net +39 BB

AJ 10 times- per above
Net +37 BB

AT 9 times- 3 bet 2 times
all folded 0 times
-1 bb on 2 hands 3 bets
-5 bb on 3 hands i flatted
Overall net -8 BB

KQ 9 times- 3 bet 4 times
all folded 2 times, had to fold other to a shove -4BB
1 win w cbet +22bb
-29 bb on 3 hands i flatted, made a draw and missed 2 draws
Overall net -7 BB

KJ 6 times- 3 bet 1 times
all folded 1 times, +7 BB
-99 bb on 4 hands i flatted, flopped top 2 pr vs set JJJ, flopped nut draw vs set of 22
Overall net -92 BB

Summary
43 hands
18 hands 3 bet +78 BB, include 2 times i got pushed on and had to fold
14 hands flatted -58 BB
11 hands folded preflop -9 BB


The main thing i take from this is that being more aggressive works better, i did much better in the hands i 3 bet than when i flatted and it had virtually nothing to do with being dominated or having opponent dominated, could these results be a bit skewed by a couple cooler type hands w/ KJ? Maybe, but notice i lost to only 1 hand that had me dominated. One hand i lost to JJ, might fold to a 3 bet and a hand 22, that likely folds to a 3 bet. Again it is important to remember Sklanskys thoery of poker, you profit from your opponents mistakes. Aggression on your part creates many opportunities for your opponent to make a mistake. Their mistake depends on their hand, but looking at KJ hands, if JJ folded to a 3 bet he is making a huge mistake vs KJ, if the 22 calls vs a 3 bet 3 way he is making a big mistake also.

I am not advocating 3 betting mindlessly, but i think opponents give you a lot more credit when you 3 bet vs 2+ opponents than you think and it is worth trying. I never once got called by both opponents, heads up much easier to play postflop and so far it looks like a better plan to be more aggro even when it makes you a bit uncomfortable.

while 9500 hands is small sample, it looks like some of the changes i have been making are improving my win rate to around 12 bb/100 hands from around 8 bb/100 it waas the first 30k hands i played at 100nl. I know i feel much more in command of the table and game flow than i used to and i think being more aggressive is a big part of both these things

i hope i didnt sound like too much of a Prickosaurus, my goal was to share another line of thinking and things that have been working well for me as i try to keep improving my game

gl hg

by the way , what did he have?

well since it doesn't look like anybody else has an opinion, he had king jack

Other than 3 betting, I don't know how I could change my line other than going for value... I just wanted to see if others thought the read was too tight on his range.

Like I said, I had bluff 3 bet like 3 times in the last few orbits so gameflow sort of dictated that I try to go for value next time. I do 3 bet with AJ in the blinds a decent amount, but in this specific spot against 2 guys with tight ranges, it felt like I was better off calling than putting a lot of chips in with a marginal hand.

Interesting hand.

I would definitely lead the turn. You will get value from worse Aces, pair+gutshot, pair+FD and can comfortably fold to a raise from most non-maniac players. It also protects your bluffing range in that spot.

interesting hand.

I would definitely lead the turn. You will get value from worse Aces, pair+gutshot, pair+FD and can comfortably fold to a raise from most non-maniac players. It also protects your bluffing range in that spot.

I guess... I'm leading into 2 players, so maybe one would call on a draw. There's really no other weaker aces to get value from here, there's only 2 left and I would think they are only opening in MP or calling from the button with worse aces if it was suited given my pre flop stats. Thats like 6 combos of A7-A9 that they could have. I would have to get value from KQ, QJ, or JT and they would all probably have to have a flush draw to continue and most probably bet the flop. I did think hard about leading the turn, but I thought he had KJ or AK the majority of the time, so I went with the check call and check fold on the river.

I like the idea of protecting your bluffing range though, you don't want to only be betting on bluffs and calling with made hands.

one thing Tim mentioned above that i have been working on and i think has helped me alot recently and i have been trying to be aware of is that their are many situations that will come up when you arent sure if the opponent is weak/on a draw or has a monster is to make a bet and plan to fold to a raise. VERY FEW NON MANIAC PLAYERS WILL EVER BLUFF RAISE POST FLOP, ESPECIALLY ON THE TURN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

again, thinking about your own game, do you ever bluff raise the turn? i can count the number of times on my 1 hand i have over last 100k hands. So you can "safely" make a value bet knowing you are done if you get raised. As ussual Tim's advice works great, i have picked up a ton of "new" value doing this since most times the opponent just calls with a few folds and few raises.

hg

VERY FEW NON MANIAC PLAYERS WILL EVER BLUFF RAISE POST FLOP, ESPECIALLY ON THE TURN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

again, thinking about your own game, do you ever bluff raise the turn?

LOL yeah, but I'm a maniac