QQ over-pair to draw heavy board..

[Col-F]

I have a query for Tim and the Trainers here regarding a hand I played recently..

Cashgame - 6 handed - Very early in my session, no reads on players at this point. 5 and 10 cent blinds.

I open for 3bb raise in mid position with QQ. (full stack $10)

Button($15 stack) and SB($8 stack) both call.

The flop shows 9s 5c 2c

SB makes pot size bet. I raise with my QQ to $4 , and the button Shoves his stack $14.70 all in - the SB immediately folds.

So I'm left with a decision, I'm thinking the button has a club flush draw, or he has a set, as I don't see him doing this with just top pair. My QQ is in bad shape against a set, but if he's drawing I'm ahead, altho I don't hold the Q club..

I have $6 dollars left and the pot is $20, I debate for a moment and call, he shows his pocket 99 for a set of nines, and they hold up. And there goes my stack.

So what I'm really wondering is , are these the laydowns I should be making in order to progress my game.. I never recovered my full stack for the remainder of the session. A similar scenario happened later, but this time my overpair JJ to a dry board, were beaten by poc QQ's, who had just smooth called my raise. I'm finding these situations very tricky.

I really look foward to any feedback on this!
Thanks,
Col.

[hockeyguy]

I have a query for Tim and the Trainers here regarding a hand I played recently..

Cashgame - 6 handed - Very early in my session, no reads on players at this point. 5 and 10 cent blinds.

I open for 3bb raise in mid position with QQ. (full stack $10)

Button($15 stack) and SB($8 stack) both call.

The flop shows 9s 5c 2c

SB makes pot size bet. I raise with my QQ to $4 , and the button Shoves his stack $14.70 all in - the SB immediately folds.

So I'm left with a decision, I'm thinking the button has a club flush draw, or he has a set, as I don't see him doing this with just top pair. My QQ is in bad shape against a set, but if he's drawing I'm ahead, altho I don't hold the Q club..

I have $6 dollars left and the pot is $20, I debate for a moment and call, he shows his pocket 99 for a set of nines, and they hold up. And there goes my stack.

So what I'm really wondering is , are these the laydowns I should be making in order to progress my game.. I never recovered my full stack for the remainder of the session. A similar scenario happened later, but this time my overpair JJ to a dry board, were beaten by poc QQ's, who had just smooth called my raise. I'm finding these situations very tricky.

I really look foward to any feedback on this!
Thanks,
Col.

a thingg or two to start with
A i would reccommend 4x preflop raises as a general rule at 10nl and typically up to 100nl
the reason is you are generally going to be way sead of the range of most callers, so you want to get more money in the pot when you are ahead
it may not seem like much, but it also allows you to make bigger bets on fllop/turn/river as well all of which allow more value from loose callers
the combo of this can add several bb too win rate

vs a very tight player you can raise 3x since they wont call w rags so no need to bet/risk more to gey them to fold
when they call they have a hand so you dont neccesarily wat more $ in the pot since you may not be ahead of their range


so effective pot on flop is$1+1+4 +4+6=$16, 4.70 will go back to button no matter since he has you cover, an important fact when calculating pot odds
so 16/6 or 2.66/1
let look at villian range of likely shove hands aa kk jj tt 99 55 22 Axs, X=k,q,j,t,9,8,7, assumes button wont call A baby suited
other possible push hands kxs draw, A9 tptk QQ 9cXc, X=8,T,J,Q,K
air unlikely most other hands unlikely to call raze an shove over a pot lead bet into a pfr that raises pot
aa kk 99 55 22 all have you crushed to 2 outs
AcXc 7 combos 9 flush outs, 3 Aces 12 outs twice about a coin flip vs your qq
pr w flush draw has 9 flush outs and 5 outs for 2 pair/trips 14 outs twice slight fave over qq, can use poker stove for exact%, i believe about 54%
your qq has jj tt A9 in bad shape 2 or 5 outs
vs other qq, the other qq has 5% freeroll rr clubs

hand/player read
since they 3 bet push flop i assume they are agggressive, so i doubt aa kk since aggr player raise preflop typically
aggr players can/will push hands like this w pair and draw since they are dog to very few hands and can generste high fold equity/maniac image

situation read
pot raised preflop
blind leads pot bet into raiser- typically a show of strength
pfr raiser raises a show of stregth with pot size raise- bigger show of stregnth
last to act shoves in the face of strength preflop, and even more strength on flop
button seems certain they are best, so a9,tt seem unlikely, a naked draw seems unlikely since he just ruined his drawing odds and unlikely others both going to fold

so it looks like qq are beat right now or are dog to pr with a draw 9cXc hands
getting 2.66/1 odds to call, the question is are qq beat by aa kk or set(more likely) or would player push a 9cXc type hand where pot odds force a call
at 10nl most players dont know the odds of 9cXc type hands off top of their head, so i put the average villian on set and hope to muster the discipline to fold
(but bewrare their are aggr fish that will try push bluff like this w air, 88, A9 tptk w back door flush draw etc, notes are what will help you know about these type players)

can you go thru all this at table, probably not, but by asking the question you are doing the work needed away from table to help make correct decision quickly at the table. i try to break it into what beats me, is it reasonable, what i beat, what hands are coin flips, and the likely hood of each, then my pot odds, then trust your gut


the second hand
A similar scenario happened later, but this time my overpair JJ to a dry board, were beaten by poc QQ's, who had just smooth called my raise. I'm finding these situations very tricky.

very tuff to get off big overpair( TT+)on the flop, bound to lose big pot to bigger overpair unless you have a good read on villian
sinilar to kk runnig into aa, these will mostly even out over long run, these type hands are not really going to be the ones that determine whether you win or lose in the long run
i dont lose sleep over them

hope this helps
gl hg

[Col-F]

Nice One Hockeyguy, that is an absolute quality reply to my question..

I have just read over it once , and I'm really excited to go over it again.. but already I've picked up so much, and my near mechanical call with the QQ is difficult to accept now!

Excellent break down of all the points and I'm really going to study this in a lot more detail.. and I know the thought process is in a lot of the videos but it actually has really helped even more going through a hand I played..

Great Stuff thanks man!.

Col.

[hockeyguy]

glad it was helpful. two points i forgot to make is that this type of situation comes up pretty frequently when you have a one pair type hand.
Someone forces you to call or fold, usually you are in 1 of 2 situations
1) about a coin flip
2) way behind
this is generslly a bad place to call because i would estimate at least 3/4 times at the micros you will be way behind and the pot odds from the coin flips cant make up the difference in the long run

same thing w 1 pair hands, if you are put into a position where you are calling for your stack, you are beat vs typical players
Two pair is the average winning hand in holdem at showdown, so given the passive nature of so many micro players
when someone wants to get it in they have 1 pair crushed

They are a few situations w/ certain type players that are exceptions to above generalizations, but that is what notes are useful for
for example many lags may get it in w TT o a 9 52 flop versus a pfr with a bigger pair, but notice that haand will typically go like this
KK raises, TT calls (either a cold call or after a limp)
flop come 952
TT leads into pfr, pfr reraises, TT calls, TT check calls on turn
0r
pfr bets , TT raises, pfr pushes TT calls

notice TT is calling in above examples
obviously the TT could put KK in a position to call, but pot odds will typically force KK to call after several raises and small stack left

but this basically like your second hand, the important point is to know the player so you dont go passive and lose value because you feared the worst case vs someone that will get it in w 99,tt etc, and vs tight players that only would get it in w kk aa or a set , so you can slow down or get off hand

gl hg

[atta22]

hockeyguy provided some solid analysis. I just want to add one thing - I think overall it really comes down to your read on the opponent and whether you think he's an idiot and is pushing any 9x there or club draw, or if he's super solid, knows you likely have an overpair given you played the hand, and isn't phased by that fact. It really pays to have a solid read on your opponent to know what to do. After you raise to $4, you're pretty pot committed unless you're up against a super nit. I wouldn't fault getting it in like you did with a very little read to go with.

-Tim

[Col-F]

Thanks Tim and HG for all the analysis on this hand..

[hockeyguy]

hockeyguy provided some solid analysis. I just want to add one thing - I think overall it really comes down to your read on the opponent and whether you think he's an idiot and is pushing any 9x there or club draw, or if he's super solid, knows you likely have an overpair given you played the hand, and isn't phased by that fact. It really pays to have a solid read on your opponent to know what to do. After you raise to $4, you're pretty pot committed unless you're up against a super nit. I wouldn't fault getting it in like you did with a very little read to go with.

-Tim

i think me and tim are in agreement, the reason being he would be willing to get in it vs non nitty players and unknown players. I just found in my experience most players at 10nl are very loose in small and medium size pots, but were pretty nitty in big pots espcially when the money went in early and fast. So unless i had stats or a good read on a player to the contrary. i eventually began to give them credit for the a big hand because they had a big hand almost every time i looked them up.

gl hg