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+EV Play?

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+EV Play?

Postby cudaflu » Sun Mar 13, 2011 1:20 pm

Hey guys, how's it going.

I just finished up a session that included this hand.

***** Hand History for Game 32444679153 ***** (Merge)
$10.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, March 13, 11:36:23 ET 2011
Table Lima (32444679) (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Seat 1: Cudaflu ( $10.23 USD )
Seat 2: Onesmileago ( $14.27 USD )
Seat 3: DokTopA ( $12.07 USD )
Seat 4: horrrrN1 ( $17.39 USD )
Seat 5: Vetal86 ( $3.55 USD )
Seat 6: phillbad ( $11.54 USD )
Cudaflu posts small blind [$0.05 USD].
Onesmileago posts big blind [$0.10 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Cudaflu [ 7d 7c ]
DokTopA folds
horrrrN1 folds
Vetal86 folds
phillbad raises [$0.35 USD]
Cudaflu calls [$0.30 USD]
Onesmileago folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5d, 3s, Tc ]
Cudaflu checks
phillbad bets [$0.53 USD]
Cudaflu calls [$0.53 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6c ]
Cudaflu checks
phillbad bets [$1.05 USD]
Cudaflu calls [$1.05 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 7h ]
Cudaflu checks
phillbad bets [$1.98 USD]
Cudaflu raises [$8.30 USD]
phillbad calls [$6.32 USD]
Cudaflu shows [7d, 7c ]
phillbad shows [5h, 4h ]
phillbad wins $19.54 USD from main pot

The villain is a 21/8 guy with 20% raise first on the button. He has a Cbet flop %of something like 70, so I'm not folding the flop ever. He Cbets the turn about 50% of the time so I call again, figuring I'm good here often enough and if I'm not I have outs (I considered the 7 an out). His river aggression stat is much higher than the others, so I figured he could have two big cards and be trying to take it (I checked in case he wanted to bluff at it, seeing as it would have been a good bluff card) or be betting an overpair here or any other set lower than 77 that I am ahead of, or TT. Thinking that I am probably good here I decided to shove because he might call with those overpairs, or smaller sets, etc.

He happened to have the straight here but do you think long run it would be a good shove? I'm never folding after the river bet, but would a flat call be the better option in the long run?

Any feedback would be greatly appreciated!

Good luck at the tables!
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Re: +EV Play?

Postby filobetto » Sun Mar 13, 2011 4:33 pm

Not really an expert, but I can certainly see your line of thinking in the hand. The guy ended up having a hand none of us would have probably expected. But still..... maybe just calling on the river when you dont have the nuts is the better idea here. Actually, a check raise on the flop may have spared you the hardship. At least it would have defined his hand a little for you. By just checking and calling you never can be sure where you are at until it's too late.

I guess I could take your line if you had rolled a set on the flop but I more than likely would have tried to get it in before the river.

But like I said, I'm not an expert and I'm not knocking your play. It's just that if it were me in that case, I'm gonna put pressure on before the river gets there so I can get a better grasp on his hand range. He is probably not calling a chk raise w/54 on a 53t flop. Winning a small pot is always better than losing a big one.

Of course looking at his stats it is easy to put him on a much stronger hand than what he had.
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Re: +EV Play?

Postby hockeyguy » Sun Mar 13, 2011 9:41 pm

hey cud
given his 20/18 preflop stats and his 70% cbet (which are quite similar to mine). he is going to be Cbetting a ton of overs and air on the T53 rainbow flop especially hu in position, i do. However, i hate getting checkraised on this type flop after i cbet. i typically let it go since i basically have 6 outs at best, except vs a serial checkraiser or goofy lag. Most other tags will do the same at these stakes.

Since he is on the button i am not going to give him credit for much. Since my hand is so vulnerablr to over cards any of which could hit his wide button range i like a flop check raise that gets value from his cbet he will likely have to surrender and protects your hand from a possible suckout by charging over cards to chase. Most tags at this level will give you credit for AT KT type hands and let it go. They will typically only reraise AT or better. If they call the CR they will almost always show up w/ Tx and be willing to go to showdown without putting more $$$$$$$$$$$$ in the pot. Basically the CR will turn there hand face up. Which is really nice when you are not that strong.

I like to end the hand quickly w/ marginal hands that are quite vulnerable so i am not stuck calling bigger bets later w/ no clear idea where i am at. i dont like to linger around w/ a naked middle pair
The set showing up is a rarity, and in this case a bit of a cooler. I might have raised a bit smaller like 3x to about 6 since i dont think he has that strong a hand, but ended up stacking off if i got reraised since it is just hard to put him on 4x, 89, TTT that beat me. I would expect him to stack off w/ AT, JJ+, 4x,555,666, and a bunch of 2 pair hands. So i am ahead of most of his range, epecially the way he bet the turn which i would tend to eliminate 89 and 4x (except maybe 8c9c or 4cXc that picked up flush draw) so i think your raise fine, just unlucky spot as a 20/18 is not showing up w/ 54 there very often even on the button.


hg
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Re: +EV Play?

Postby atta22 » Sun Mar 13, 2011 10:12 pm

I would have played it the same, definitely wouldn't be check-raising the flop myself as nothing worse is calling. Turn could be a fold depending how often he 2barrels but if he's barrelling a lot I can find a call.

However, I definitely wouldn't be check-raising the river as he'll fold anything except a straight. He'll likely check behind most hands on the river except a straight as well, so I might lead the river half pot-ish to get value from overpairs that dont believe you, and fold to a raise.
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Re: +EV Play?

Postby mort_nmgn » Mon Mar 14, 2011 9:43 am

I agree with Atta to c/c the flop.

The turn in pretty close IMO, but because there is now a backdoorflushdraw on the table i'll c/c again.

On the river I like leading though.. Since villain is probably checking behind a ton of Single pair hands.. so when he is betting the river he is really polarized to Very Strong or Bluffs, I like leading more then check calling.. When you lead the river you hive him the opportunity to make a bad call with Tx..
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Re: +EV Play?

Postby filobetto » Mon Mar 14, 2011 7:41 pm

Only reason I suggested a chk raise on the flop was to at least figure out if 77 was good at the time or not. I still have some learning to do I know, But I just can't see chking and calling all the way like that never really feeling sure. At the micros it seems most players get scared off when you chk raise a standard cbet and if you know the guy is gonna keep barreling how can you just keep calling with a mid PP?

I'm not real big on chk raising either in general but it's better than donk betting and gives a higher percentage of taking it down ( at leats in the micros). I just don't understand why calling would be the correct play here. Maybe the flop but definetly not the turn.

:) I guess thats why I'm still playin micros and can't seem to move up where the better money is.
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Re: +EV Play?

Postby hockeyguy » Mon Mar 14, 2011 11:28 pm

very interesting
After reading Atta/mort responses i cant argue w/ their logic/experience/skill since they are both better players than me and what they said makes sense to me. I am still rying to get comfortable w/ check call to the end w/ medium strength and vulnerable hands. Every time i do it it seems like an A or K hits on turn or river and then i am in a tough spot trying to decide if they Cbet/barreled big cards and hit or if they are full of poop. I rarely seem to be right and so i adopted the find out early strategy i described. I agree no better hand will call a flop check raise, i am typically just happy to end hand if i am best and know i am done if i get called. I have no doubt the atta response is a better plan and more EV especially as you get to 100nl and up where the better players are more skilled in their aggression, i am just not there yet in comfort/player reading/situation reading skill yet.

So much to learn and practice

back to the tables HG
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Re: +EV Play?

Postby filobetto » Tue Mar 15, 2011 7:34 pm

I am definetly not there either, and I don't doubt what Tim is saying to be true. i guess I just dont understand the long turn ev in this situation. I mean if you know the guy is aggressive and is apt to double barrel why not try to end it on the flop? 77 is vulnerable to 7 other starting hands that beat yours. plus the potential overs on the turn or river.

Then the guy shows up with a hand you would never expect and ya kinda let him get there by chking and calling. He's probably only betting because he still had the initiative, then on the river he hits his hand anyways.

I guess I'm too much of a wuss sometimes. If i float the flop I'd probably take your word for it when ya bet the turn and just let it go and wait for a better spot. Unless maybe if I had a lot of history on ya or could see your cards or something :)
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Re: +EV Play?

Postby cudaflu » Tue Mar 15, 2011 8:44 pm

Thanks for all the responses guys!

Definitely starting to analyze my plays more to get a better understanding of what I could improve on, and its showing good results so far.
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