I re-watched a video last week. I think it was #19 or #20. Anyways, it had a great example of playing a hand for set value.

The situation was (I think) that atta22 was in the blind with 33. A late position raiser that had a very low pfr raised. As explained in the video, the guy had an ample chip stack and figuring that atta22 could put him on a premium hand, the prospect of stacking this player was very likely if a set was hit on the flop.

So.... atta22 called the pfr and he made his set of 3's. He made a checkraise on the flop and did in fact win a stack vs AA.

I am wondering how the hand would be played vs similar opponent stats if an Ace or K hit the board on the flop? Do you put in a checkraise like before and re-evaluate your opponents actions? What if he wants to get stacks in here? You still have your set, but do you give credit for a bigger set? More or less I think poker stove would still show your set as a favorite. Am I right?

here's my 2 cents

heads up I am never going to give them credit for a bigger set
it is so rare that i will pay it off, to me it is just like KK preflop,
i will never give them credit for AA in a cash game, by the time
it is evident the opponent may have AA the pot is typically large
enough and the pot odds good enough that a call is almost a must
mathematically.

For instance lets look at 100nl game with a full stack opponent
I raise 4 bb and get 3 bet to 12 bb, i am always 4 betting KK
so i make it 36 to go, the pot is now 1.5 in blinds + 4 my raise
+ 12 their raise + 36 my 4 bet= 53.50
if the opponent shoves 88, pot is now 141.5 and i have 60 left.
So i am getting about 2.5 to 1 to call, worst case i am 4 to 1 dog
if they have AA, if they have AK or Ax i am 70/30 favorite and any
other hand i am at least a 4 to 1 favorite. It would have to be an
unbelieveably tight opponent for me to consider a fold or we would
both have to be much deeper stacked ( which would change the odds)
before i would consider a fold when they shoved. Notice if their 3 bet and/or my 4 bet
are bigger the odds to call the shove are even closer to 4/1 making a call mandatory.
eg i raise 4 bb, they 3bet to 16, i make 4x 4 bet to to 54, pot is now
1.5+4+16+54=74.5, his shove 84 makes pot 158, i have 42 left getting
3.76/1 and cannot possibly lay it down when 4/1 is 0 EV and you cannot be that sure
the opponent has AA

given set vs set on the flop is more rare than KK vs AA similar logic and
math applies post flop. FYI aa vs kk preflop at a 6 man table is 220/5=44/1
So given the odds you haveto be "The Amazin Kreskin" to know your opponent
has AA when you have KK and you are losin a huge amount of value if you
keep giving your opponent credit for AA when you have KK and you get a lot
of action. I will charge the 43 opponents the max and pay off the lucky SOB
w/ AA every time preflop when i have KK.

As it happens i was looking at my results today and in the last 16,000 hands
i had AA vs KK once( i lost), I had KK vs AA twice(won one K on river, lost one)
, i also flopped lower set 3 times, i had bigger set 0 times. It is important to
note the AA vs KK preflop will even out in the long run and that is not where money
is made, although $$$ can be left on the table by playing KK less aggressively preflop.

The precise odds of set vs set on flop are not directly calculable due to variation in how
players play pairs preflop, but making a few assumptions we can estimate the general odds
The odds another player at 6 max has a pocket pair when you do is about 1/3. (odds any player
dealt a pair preflop 1/16 * 5 remaining players = 5/16=1/3) The odds you will flop a set are 1/8, odds they will also flop a set are 2 outs in 47 cards left * 2 cards left on the flop since 1 card made your set, or 4/47=1/12, so combining 1/8 and 1/12= 1/96 will you and an opponent flop a set , realize this is true
regardless of whether your pair is big or small. Also notice If you only play bigger pairs your chance of having the lower set go down, but if you play every/any pair.
Fyi my lower sets were 333 to 888, 666 to 999, 999 to jjj

looking at my 16,000 hands, i had about 1000 pairs, figuring 1/3 opponent had a pair also
333 times we saw a flop a set vs set would happen about 4 times, it happened 3 times which
is about right since no way i saw flop all 1000 times, i saw probably about 600 flops so was due
about 2.5 set vs set in that span of hands, sadly i was bottom set all 3 times.

bottom line is set vs set on flop is about half as likely as KK vs AA preflop

Also realize in the long run this is a cooler type hand and will even out in long run, so to paraphrase
the morons on Jersy Shore, you want to try to "get it in" when you have a set

Also notice if the guy was very tight preflop AK is in his range and he made TPTK WAYYYYYYYYY
more often than set kkk or aaa, if he has AA and gets action on K hi flop he wants to get it in since
no reraise preflop virtually eliminates set kk on flop

BET THAT SET FOR VALUE EVERY TIME

HG

yup i am enjoying an adult beverage or two

a more simple analysis with poker stove shows


A hi flop

Board: Ac 5d 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.081% 18.08% 00.00% 11277 0.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 81.919% 81.92% 00.00% 51093 0.00 { 55 }


K high flop

Board: 5d 7c Kd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.600% 18.60% 00.00% 11601 0.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 81.400% 81.40% 00.00% 50769 0.00 { 55 }




AKx flop wher x makes you a set
Board: 5d Kd Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.232% 49.23% 00.00% 21933 0.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 50.768% 50.77% 00.00% 22617 0.00 { 55


your small set is a huge favorite overall even if their pfr range is AA KK AK only

Mike " The Situation" from Jersey shore says "GET IT IN"

hg

Great question filobetto - and hockeyguy nailed it as usual.

I'm check-raising almost all sets regardless of the board and never worrying about someone having a higher set. The only time I'd possibly be concerned about a set is if I had 99 on a JT9 monotone flop or something.

You need to be check-raising all your made hands/sets to counterbalances the times you are BLUFFING in that spot (which you should also be doing with some frequency). If they know you are sometimes bluffing they will get in their toppair/overpair all the time, or sometimes even play back with air.

Hope this helps!
Tim

Ya it helped. Thanks HG and Tim for the great tips. Basically, I always try to get in in when I hit a set no matter, except like you mentioned with a flop like 9 10 J and I'm holding a set. Then I get a little cautious. I was just curious if you gave it some caution when the original raiser had a very low pfr %.

So my understanding now is basically play it like we would w/KK preflop and just try to get the chips in under most board conditions. IE a small set being similar to KK as it is preflop