Problems moving up

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Problems moving up

Postby Stones87 » Sat Feb 27, 2010 6:34 am

After playing 20k hands NL25 and winning 13bb/100 hands i decided to move up to NL50. But after 6k hands i lost 8 buy ins! I really don't know what's going on, it seems to me that the players are even worse then in NL25! And after those 6k hands my $EV is even +69 dollars... Does it mean that I was just terrible unlucky? Or what does it mean? Hope u guys can help me...
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Re: Problems moving up

Postby Mattutaylor » Sat Feb 27, 2010 7:55 am

From the outside looking in this seems like a bit of a confidence issue to me. I would suggest moving back down to 25nl for a while until you start consistently winning again and then move up when your confidence has returned.
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Re: Problems moving up

Postby hockeyguy » Sat Feb 27, 2010 12:57 pm

the EV calculation is a general representation of whether you got the $$ in while you were ahead, and then compares it with your actual results based on when the $$ went in. it is not calculated for every hand, so it tells you if you have been "unlucky" or not in all in situations. So it may not being telling the whole story regarding your 50nl results. For instance if you have AA and the other guy has kk and you get it all in preflop and the guy spikes a K to win, the EV calculation result will be different than if you have AA and he has KK and it all goes in on the turn after a K hits. Both hands you were "unlucky" but the EV calc for the fisrt is positive since you ahead when $$$ went in,, the second hand your EV calc is negative since you were behind when $$$ went in. If the situation were reversed and you hit the turn king and then the $$$$ went in, it would show a positive EV calc, even though you were "lucky" and the $$$$ was going to go in regardless on most boards. Another situation you could be way behind after flop, like with AK vs a pocket pair and then catch a turn or river that forces the pair to fold before showdown, you got "lucky" but it is not icluded in EV calculation. So you want to be aware what the EV number is really telling you.

I am a fan of matts comment, a drop back to 25nl for few sessions to get your mojo working again. Then pop back up to 50nl, the bad players will still be there, they have no place to.

gl HG
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Re: Problems moving up

Postby atta22 » Sat Apr 10, 2010 7:53 pm

Stones87 wrote:After playing 20k hands NL25 and winning 13bb/100 hands i decided to move up to NL50. But after 6k hands i lost 8 buy ins! I really don't know what's going on, it seems to me that the players are even worse then in NL25! And after those 6k hands my $EV is even +69 dollars... Does it mean that I was just terrible unlucky? Or what does it mean? Hope u guys can help me...


Matt and hockeyguy explained it well - yeah you are probably running bad but there's nothing wrong with dropping back down to NL25 where you're confident and grinding it back - then take another shot for a few buyins when you're winning, confident and playing well.

-Tim/atta22
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