Played a huge pot today against 2 fish. I was wondering if my line was good.

Player 6 (Villain 1) was a pretty big fish. I had 3 barreled a hand against him previously and hit a bd flush and since that point I feel like he's tilting somewhat kind of trying to push me out of pots and never folding to my aggression. He has made this little min raise a bunch of times this session, his 3 bet is like 27% in 100 hands, so he's pretty much min raising all of the hands he would open normally.

He plays around 60/25.

Player 4 (Villain 2) also was pretty fishy. He limp called me previously and proceeded to check/min raise my cbet on a Kxx board, then check called a jack turn and checked a jack river with AJ.

He plays about 45/15 with a limp percentage of 27 (50% of buttons) but it's only 67 hands.

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Bodog)
$100.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, August 24, 11:30:43 ET 2011
Table Single Malt (max 6) (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( $79.15 USD )
Seat 2: Player2 ( $44.30 USD )
Seat 3: Player3 ( $126.05 USD )
Seat 4: Player4 ( $137.32 USD )
Seat 5: Hero ( $156.35 USD )
Seat 6: Player6 ( $98.53 USD )
Hero posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
Player6 posts big blind [$1.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 9h 9d ]
Player1 folds
Player3 folds
Player4 calls [$1.00 USD]
Hero raises [$3.50 USD]
Player6 raises [$6.00 USD]
Player4 calls [$6.00 USD]
Hero calls [$3.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8h, 7h, Th ]
Hero checks
Player6 bets [$12.00 USD]
Player4 calls [$12.00 USD]
Hero raises [$42.00 USD]
Player6 raises [$60.00 USD]
Player4 raises [$118.32 USD]
Hero raises [$107.35 USD]
Player6 calls [$19.53 USD]

Pre flop I tried to iso the fish and subsequently got min raised by the other fish so I think call is the right play.

I decided to go for the c/r on the flop because the aggressor fish was cbetting 81%. He got called by the passive fish so I raised big hoping that I could try to isolate one guy who was drawing or had a pair of 10s. Obviously I'm pot committed with this raise. Is that the right move here? I only have 2 outs vs a flush which seems to be a part of both of their ranges as well as a hand like TX with a bigger heart than a 9. I talked myself into shoving here because they were fish who seemed to be making spazzy plays in general. I'm more concerned if this is the right thing to do vs better players. I'd be fine with getting it in vs anything but the flush or bigger heart, but I feel like I'm in a spot where I'm either a slight favorite or I'm way behind. Should I have just flatted the flop or be fine with shoving?

emitnulb wrote:Played a huge pot today against 2 fish. I was wondering if my line was good.

Player 6 (Villain 1) was a pretty big fish. I had 3 barreled a hand against him previously and hit a bd flush and since that point I feel like he's tilting somewhat kind of trying to push me out of pots and never folding to my aggression. He has made this little min raise a bunch of times this session, his 3 bet is like 27% in 100 hands, so he's pretty much min raising all of the hands he would open normally.

He plays around 60/25.

Player 4 (Villain 2) also was pretty fishy. He limp called me previously and proceeded to check/min raise my cbet on a Kxx board, then check called a jack turn and checked a jack river with AJ.

He plays about 45/15 with a limp percentage of 27 (50% of buttons) but it's only 67 hands.

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Bodog)
$100.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, August 24, 11:30:43 ET 2011
Table Single Malt (max 6) (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( $79.15 USD )
Seat 2: Player2 ( $44.30 USD )
Seat 3: Player3 ( $126.05 USD )
Seat 4: Player4 ( $137.32 USD )
Seat 5: Hero ( $156.35 USD )
Seat 6: Player6 ( $98.53 USD )
Hero posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
Player6 posts big blind [$1.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 9h 9d ]
Player1 folds
Player3 folds
Player4 calls [$1.00 USD]
Hero raises [$3.50 USD]
Player6 raises [$6.00 USD]
Player4 calls [$6.00 USD]
Hero calls [$3.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8h, 7h, Th ]
Hero checks
Player6 bets [$12.00 USD]
Player4 calls [$12.00 USD]
Hero raises [$42.00 USD]
Player6 raises [$60.00 USD]
Player4 raises [$118.32 USD]
Hero raises [$107.35 USD]
Player6 calls [$19.53 USD]

Pre flop I tried to iso the fish and subsequently got min raised by the other fish so I think call is the right play.

i totally agree here w/ call, once you got 2 customers i think set value is way higher than a raising war w/ 99
I decided to go for the c/r on the flop because the aggressor fish was cbetting 81%. He got called by the passive fish so I raised big hoping that I could try to isolate one guy who was drawing or had a pair of 10s.

I dont think both opponents are ever folding to your checkraise. So going back to why we bet
1)to get value from worse hand calling
2)to get better hand to fold
3)to increase our equity, ie win pot or eliminate opponents (maybe KhQx folds so a K or Q doesnt beat your 99) prior to next card
and we do get info from opponents response to our bet or raise- but it is rarely worth the cost to bet/raise just to get info

since i dont think both players are ever folding, i dont think you are ever ahead when you get called. Also when you get called, it is pretty certain many of your drawing outs make a second best hand. I think w/a hand with such unclear status it is not in your best interest to start building a big pot. I think a raise only gets you info you really already know, but costs alot for no reall new info. A bet into 2 other opponents is rarely a bluff, a call indicates at least top pair and/or big draw, both have your 99 in very possible bad shape
Also notice player 6 is never folding since they only have about 1/2 pot left intheir stack

Obviously I'm pot committed with this raise. Is that the right move here?

you only have about a third of your stack in, folding may be painful, but i dont think you are committed to put more $$$ in a bad situation

I only have 2 outs vs a flush which seems to be a part of both of their ranges as well as a hand like TX with a bigger heart than a 9. I talked myself into shoving here because they were fish who seemed to be making spazzy plays in general.

Sometimes their spazziness can be contagious, the way we crush spazzy fish is patience and letting them spaz when we have solid hand and expect to be well ahead of the spazzes. We dont want to get into a spaz contest with them. When he shoves over top 3 way we should know most of our outs are likely no good and we may be behind as the hands stand as well.

most times I'm more concerned if this is the right thing to do vs better players. I'd be fine with getting it in vs anything but the flush or bigger heart, but I feel like I'm in a spot where I'm either a slight favorite or I'm way behind. Should I have just flatted the flop or be fine with shoving?

AS you mentioned you are thinking you are a slight fave or big underdog, not exactly the shoving situation we covet. In general i would be more likely to shove heads up vs a tag that would gamble w/ a A hi draw since a couple of his outs are counterfeited and dead money in middle would give a +EV in long run. Similar thinking vs a single lag, but even if only subconciously even bad players know you generally need the goods or nut draw multiway on a flop like this, especially when 2 players put $$ in pot postflop so i am never checkraing this flop 3 way. In a 3 way pot i want to hit my straight flush before i get it in as they will never fold the A hi flush or even worse flushes/straights/trips/2 pair. Bear in mind your 2 outs to the nuts is like chasing a set post flop 1/22 on turn and 1/21 on river- not good odds despite the seductive siren of the straight flush

in short i might peel (only because 1 guy is deepish)the turn and fold river unless i improve, or i might just get out of the way and wait for a better spot, but i am never raising 3 way w/ both opponents already putting $$$ in on the flop

hg

hg

Well my problem is that no matter what I do I run into a really tough spot. Yeah I could be against a flopped flush, but player 4 is probably not going to flat player 6 with a flush unless it's A high and player 6 is going to cbet every time. Further, say I'm against a ten with no flush draw, I get no value when I make my hand on the turn whether it be from a 9,J, or heart because now there is either 4 to a flush or an over card on the board. Then if the flush comes on the turn do I just fold outright because I'm likely beaten by a higher flush? Wouldn't I want value from the Ah here because I'm way ahead of it as long as he doesn't have a ten or another heart in his hand?

I don't see the point in peeling if I'm only drawing to 10 cards that I like and only willing to get stacks in on 2 of them. I almost feel like this is a shove or fold spot. I dislike flatting if I'm only looking for 2 cards.

emitnulb wrote:Well my problem is that no matter what I do I run into a really tough spot.

agreed, especially when both put money in the pot and one is deep like you and the other is short and unlikely to ever fold

Yeah I could be against a flopped flush, but player 4 is probably not going to flat player 6 with a flush unless it's A high

maybe, i see fish flat non nut flushes alot, plannning to get it in on turn

and player 6 is going to cbet every time. Further, say I'm against a ten with no flush draw, I get no value when I make my hand on the turn whether it be from a 9,J, or heart because now there is either 4 to a flush or an over card on the board.

true there is no likely value if you improve to beat a pair of tens, but where is the value in putting more money when they have indicated they are unlikely to fold so if they have Tx no value is gained vs his Tx hand, plus even if you overtake Tx you may still be second best- ouch

Then if the flush comes on the turn do I just fold outright because I'm likely beaten by a higher flush?

I would, barring a free card or very tiny bet that might make chasing the str8 flush worth it

Wouldn't I want value from the Ah here because I'm way ahead of it as long as he doesn't have a ten or another heart in his hand?

i dont quite understand where you can get value from Ah on flop or turn 4th heart, if the lone Ah is out you are about a flip on the flop, i think if you check your hand in poker stove your 9h9x is never far ahead of Ah on the flop and only 2 hearts help you when a 4th heart hits so it will be a rare situation where you are in a position to get value from AhX. AhX has you in bad shape if X=T, AhXh has you crushed, AhX, X bigger than T has 13 outs, AhX, X=8 or 7 has 13 outs, best case AhX, X is 5 or less has 10 outs, Ah6 has 12 outs

if you assume the Ah is out and other opponent has Tx, your raise may give value from the Ah to the Tx hand, not to your self, i would have to do some more math, but this is an important concept from limit poker where there are many more multiway pots and people frequently make bets that charge 1 opponent , but benefits another opponent and not them selves as intended

I don't see the point in peeling if I'm only drawing to 10 cards that I like and only willing to get stacks in on 2 of them. I almost feel like this is a shove or fold spot. I dislike flatting if I'm only looking for 2 cards.

i agree, sorry that i was unclear that i prefer a check fold to a check call and would never check raise in the 3 way hand

the only really good scenario i can think of is vs 2 naked flush draws


Board: 7h 8h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.573% 61.13% 00.44% 552 4.00 { 9d9h }
Hand 1: 30.233% 29.79% 00.44% 269 4.00 { Ah4c }
Hand 2: 08.195% 07.75% 00.44% 70 4.00 { Kh3d }



however given the preflop action an off suit Ahbaby and or Khbaby are way unlikely even vs Donks
here are a couple more examples that try to show best case for your hand


Board: 7h 8h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.515% 56.37% 00.15% 509 1.33 { 9d9h }
Hand 1: 29.273% 29.13% 00.15% 263 1.33 { Ah4c }
Hand 2: 14.212% 14.06% 00.15% 127 1.33 { KhJd }


Board: 7h 8h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.213% 35.77% 00.44% 323 4.00 { 9d9h }
Hand 1: 28.571% 28.13% 00.44% 254 4.00 { Ah4c }
Hand 2: 35.216% 34.77% 00.44% 314 4.00 { KhTd }



it is pretty easy to come up w/ a bunch of bad situations given preflop and flop action
i will leave it to you to try to find a plausible situation given preflop and flop action that you really like 9h9x.

bottom line is 1 card draws even w/ str8 and flush draws are way stronger heads up than multiway, especially when you have middle cards that are not drawing to many nut hands

hg

Good discussion. /Johan

Board: 7h 8h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.213% 35.77% 00.44% 323 4.00 { 9d9h }
Hand 1: 28.571% 28.13% 00.44% 254 4.00 { Ah4c }
Hand 2: 35.216% 34.77% 00.44% 314 4.00 { KhTd }

Well this is pretty close to what actually happened. I'm totally fine getting it in with 35% equity 3 ways. +EV is +EV...

I hit the Jh on the turn by the way.

First of all congrats on the Jh,
maybe i can get a bit of similar good fortune sometime soon as i have been running superbad recently

One important point regarding the pokerstove equity % only shows your chance to win the pot w/o regard to actual money won based on opponent stack size. The equity % is not the same as EV in $$$ when all opponents dont have very similar stack sizes.

Since 1 opponent had less than you and the other 2 player, your EV and the other deep opponent actually have better EV than what you might conclude based on Equity % from pokerstove in this paticular hand. This is because when the short stack wins you and the other deep stack still have to settle the additional money you and they shoved in. In this case it was bascically a coin flip (tipped in your favor since he has 10 outs twice-about 40% equity- for the overage in the pot) so w/o doing the entire EV calc it actually turns out you will scoop the entire pot main pot which should be about $296 a bit better than 1/3 in a 3 way pot vs the hands you showed. You should win the side pot $80 overage about 3/5 when the KT hand wins the main pot. And lose both pots about 1/3 times. In this case it is not possible for you to win the main pot, but lose the overage side pot, but given different opponent hands and stack sizes combinations it might have been and that could affect your EV in $$$.

The more difference in stack sizes the bigger the variation possible between pokerstove equity % and EV in actual dollars. You really want to be a equity fave vs the bigger stack to ensure +EV in $$ in the overall hand, the bigger the difference in stack sizes between the small stack and 2 bigger stacks the more important it is to have equity % advantage over other big stack.

Congrats on the big pot, given the opponents hands you made the mathematically correct play, i am not neccesarily convinced it was correct vs their entire possible ranges as the 2 hands you showed was the second best possible combination (given preflop action and reasonable fish ranges preflop) possible vs your 99. I think i will mess around w/ some other hand ranges and see what effect it has on your equity.
If i feel frisky i may do/show the EV calc as well and how stack size and equity % interact to affect EV in $$.

hg

Well in response to you running bad, I don't know if you have noticed or not, but at 100NL Bodog is getting WAY tougher. You might want to do some database analysis to ensure that it's not a bunch more good players exploiting your leaks. There have been a ton of adjustments to my game in the last few weeks. I'm making some absurd bluff catches for my entire stack, bluffing moderately deep stacks on 3 streets to defend a 3 bet bluff, and I'm really figuring out how to make elaborate bluffs given the right opponent and board texture. The pre flop aggression has gone way down on a lot of the tables I sit at and it's becoming more of a post flop game.

Anyways, I'm at about 40 buy ins for 200NL so I'll probably be moving up sometime next month. Then I'll have to figure out a bunch more crap before I can get to my goal of crushing 5/10. Hitting 200 NL in 6 months is a pretty legit start though.

Also, good luck analyzing my equity against 2 spazzes with 50% ranges lol. I couldn't decide whether to call or fold so I just raised. Seemed like the only reasonable response to their actions and it always helps to luckbox the turn.

sorry this post got a bit long

Alrighty then
After having spent way more time messing with the opponents rangesthan I intended I have managed to fully prove Emit’s point on good luck analyzing the range of two Donks. First of all it is ugly trying to get in their head on what is an acceptable hand to 3 bet or cold call a 3 bet or to continue on a flop like 7h8hTh. I tried 2 approaches, picking possible opponent hand types- draws, sets, made flushes etc and a more general angle using an approximate range based on stats info provided I got these results which gave Emit 99 hand way more equity than I expected


Here are a few specific cases I ran through pokerstove representing various possible opponent hand combos ranging from naked draws to flopped flushes and sets etc.. They are generally ordered from best case to worst case examples vs Emit’s 99



Board: 7h 8h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.794% 61.35% 00.44% 554 4.00 { 9d9h }
Hand 1: 30.122% 29.68% 00.44% 268 4.00 { Ah4c }
Hand 2: 08.084% 07.64% 00.44% 69 4.00 { Kh4s }



Board: 7h 8h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.925% 55.70% 00.22% 503 2.00 { 9d9h }
Hand 1: 30.011% 29.79% 00.22% 269 2.00 { Ah4s }
Hand 2: 14.064% 13.84% 00.22% 125 2.00 { KhQd }



Board: 7h 8h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.143% 56.70% 00.44% 512 4.00 { 9d9h }
Hand 1: 28.571% 28.13% 00.44% 254 4.00 { Ah4c }
Hand 2: 14.286% 13.84% 00.44% 125 4.00 { Kh8s }



Board: 7h 8h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.649% 38.21% 00.44% 345 4.00 { 9d9h }
Hand 1: 26.467% 26.02% 00.44% 235 4.00 { AhKd }
Hand 2: 34.884% 34.44% 00.44% 311 4.00 { 8d7d }




Board: 7h 8h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.213% 35.77% 00.44% 323 4.00 { 9d9h }
Hand 1: 28.571% 28.13% 00.44% 254 4.00 { Ah4c }
Hand 2: 35.216% 34.77% 00.44% 314 4.00 { KhTs }




Board: 7h 8h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.884% 34.66% 00.22% 313 2.00 { 9d9h }
Hand 1: 34.441% 34.22% 00.22% 309 2.00 { KdKh }
Hand 2: 30.676% 30.45% 00.22% 275 2.00 { AhQc }




Board: 7h 8h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.387% 28.24% 00.15% 255 1.33 { 9d9h }
Hand 1: 57.844% 57.70% 00.15% 521 1.33 { AhTs }
Hand 2: 13.769% 13.62% 00.15% 123 1.33 { KhJd }




Board: 7h 8h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 12.292% 12.29% 00.00% 111 0.00 { 9d9h }
Hand 1: 17.054% 17.05% 00.00% 154 0.00 { AhKd }
Hand 2: 70.653% 70.65% 00.00% 638 0.00 { KhQh }





Board: 7h 8h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 11.185% 11.18% 00.00% 101 0.00 { 9d9h }
Hand 1: 57.475% 57.48% 00.00% 519 0.00 { AhQh }
Hand 2: 31.340% 31.34% 00.00% 283 0.00 { 7c7d }




But given the loose opponent ranges I am not sure that you can narrow them to these type hands but they may help w/ general reference points of opponent hands. After looking at these I decided to take a more general look at opponents ranges based on stat info from original post


Preflop ranges based on stats

Villain 2- limp/ cc mn 3 bet- assume 50% fold to 3 bet- so put call range at 25%
45/15
22+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,A7o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo


Hero- pfr

Villain 1- mn 3bet
60/25/25
22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JT



From here I made a few simple assumptions on some hands that would not bet or call a bet on this flop and got these slightly different ranges
Postflop ranges based on stats and action

Villain 2- limp/ cc mn 3 bet- assume 50% fold to 3 bet- so put call range at 25%
45/15
55+,Ah2h+,Kh6h+,Qh8h+,J8s+,T8s+,Ah7o+,Kh9o+,QTo+,JTo


Hero- pfr

Villain 1- mn 3bet
60/25/25
22+,Ah2h+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo



Post flop vs widest range w/ equal weighting of probability of each being the same

Board: 7h 8h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 23.270% 22.29% 00.98% 21766798 952289.00 { 55+, A4s+, Ah3h, Ah2h, K2s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A4o+, Ah3c, Ah3d, Ah3s, As3c, As3d, Ac2h, Ac2s, Ah2c, Ah2d, Ah2s, K5o+, Kh4c, Kh4d, Kh4s, Kc3d, Kh3c, Kh3d, Kh3s, Kh2c, Kh2d, Kh2s, Ks2h, QTo+, JTo }

Hand 1: 54.494% 53.40% 01.10% 52134883 1069436.50 { 9d9h }

Hand 2: 22.236% 21.44% 00.80% 20931236 778620.50 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }



Then I made a few more assumptions to limit the opponents range to more logically expected ranges
FYI- this is way easier said than done as you can easily imagine the donks continuing w/ all kinds of crap based on observations of hands Donks have sucked out w/ vs your hands. Here is what I came up with

Post flop vs probable ranges range w/ estimated weighting

Board: 7h 8h Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 44.721% 43.32% 01.40% 13464290 435148.83 { 9d9h }

Hand 1: 28.955% 27.88% 01.07% 8665865 333535.33 { 66+, A2s+, KhQh, KJs, KcTc, KdTd, KsTs, Kc9c, Kd9d, Ks9s, QhJh, QcTc, QdTd, QsTs, Qh9h, Qs9s, JcTc, JdTd, JsTs, Jc9c, Jd9d, Js9s, Tc9c, Td9d, Ts9s, 9c8c, 9d8d, 9s8s, 8c7c, 8d7d, 8s7s, 7c6c, 7d6d, 7s6s, 65s, AcKd, AdKh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AsKh, AcQh, AdQh, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AsQh, AcJh, AdJh, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, AsJh, AhTc, AhTd, AhTs, Ah9c, Ah9d, Ah9s, Ac6h, Ad6h, Ah6c, Ah6d, Ah6s, As6h, Ac5h, Ad5h, Ah5c, Ah5d, Ah5s, As5h, KcQh, KdQh, KhQc, KhQd, KhQs, KsQh, KcJh, KdJh, KhJc, KhJd, KhJs, KsJh, QcJh, QdJh, QhJc, QhJd, QhJs, QsJh }

Hand 2: 26.324% 25.36% 00.97% 7880594 300923.83 { 66+, A6s+, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KJs+, Kh8h, Ks8s, Kh7h, Ks7s, Kh6h, Ks6s, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }



Again I was surprised that 99 had more equity than I expected vs 2 opponents even of the loose Donk persuasion

I then did another pokerstove to see what equity 99 might have vs a couple less laggy players

Interestingly 99 had only about 5% less equity vs 2 players w 13% and 16% card ranges as opposed to both opponents w/ 25% card ranges

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 47.946% 46.90% 01.04% 10577298 234748.00 { 9d9h }
Hand 1: 25.769% 24.89% 00.88% 5612920 198087.00 { 66+, A2s+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 26.286% 25.49% 00.79% 5748820 178746.00 { 66+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, ATo+, KQo, QJo, JTo }


I actually had to put both players on a pretty nitty range(not shown) to get 99 down to about 33% equity post flop which was very surprising to me. I think the biggest difference between laggy and taggy opponents in this situation is the range they would have to shove post flop. Certainly a tag is capable of getting it in w AhX, although X is going to be T or higher, no Tag is ever going to call and then 4 bet shove the KhTx hand like player 4 did.

Possible lessons learned-
Do the pokerstove to see what your equity really is
Opponent reads matter- It looks like Emit was correct given his read on Donky opponents

Sidenote-As it turned out both opponents were at the very bottom end of my estimate of their range
Lags- go figure


Since I am in full blather mode I offer an alternate proposal for preflop play vs a yahoo 3 betting 25% and another Donk w/ dead money in the pot. A preflop 4 bet is ahead of all but 5 hands, or in other words ahead of about 90% of his 3 betting range and most of his hands that are in theory a flip are quite unlikely to continue. The other flipping hands are actually a 2/1 dog to out flop you and the danger cards pretty transparent on the flop



FYI preflop equity vs his 25% 3 bet range and assumes limper folds to a 4 bet and he calls your reraise and you get to showdown. Of course a lot of his hands cant call a 4 bet and most will miss the flop letting you take it down w/ a cbet



Preflop vs 3 bettor assuming you go to showdown

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.739% 59.36% 00.37% 360853540 2279414.00 { 9d9h }
Hand 1: 40.261% 39.89% 00.37% 242455552 2279414.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }


Assuming same flop I am way happier to get it in postflop in a heads up situation


On another note, I haven’t really noticed Bodog 100nl getting any tougher, my bad run is more related to KK AK running into AA 3 times as well as QQ running into KK in last session alone and a seemingly endless run in recent weeks of lost coinflips and suckouts when I was 2/1 or better fave when $$$$ went in. I must confess to more boneheaded plays than usual by me over my bad run to put the cherry on top of my running bad fudge sundae. But I am confident it will end although quite frustrated in the meantime

And congrats to Emit on his impending move to 200nl, I hope to end my bad run soon and return to 200nl and do a little damage before Bodog kicks US players off on Jan 1st next year. Then I guess I will hit Carbon poker or some other site until US gets it laws straightened out

Cheers HG

If I'm not mistaking Bodog isn't going to close it's site to US players. It is supposedly just going to create a skin for US players to separate it's operations from it's main site to avoid having it's entire casino shut down if the DOJ decides to stop it's US operations.