Everleaf Gaming Game #245687147
***** Hand history for game #245687147 *****
Blinds €0.10/€0.20 NL Hold'em - 2011/02/26 - 23:24:05
Table Ootacamund15
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players: 5
Seat 1: CfyNx_ ( new player )
Seat 2: GLMFr23 ( € 21.44 EURO )
Seat 3: mikyjazz ( € 19.70 EURO )
Seat 4: GIMME_MONEEZ ( € 23.47 EURO )
Seat 5: JohnnyChance HERO ( € 91.36 EURO )
Seat 6: drillfish VILLAIN( € 42.86 EURO )
GLMFr23: posts small blind [€ 0.10 EURO]
mikyjazz: posts big blind [€ 0.20 EURO]

** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to JohnnyChance [ Qc, Qs ]
GIMME_MONEEZ raises [€ 0.60 EURO] EP
CfyNx_ has joined the table
JohnnyChance raises [€ 2.20 EURO] CO
drillfish raises [€ 7.50 EURO] BTN
GLMFr23 folds SB
mikyjazz folds BB
GIMME_MONEEZ folds EP
JohnnyChance calls [€ 5.30 EURO]

** Dealing Flop ** [ 9h, 9s, 5h ]

JohnnyChance checks
drillfish: bets [€ 15.90 EURO]
JohnnyChance raises [€ 83.86 EURO]
drillfish calls [€ 19.46 EURO]

** Dealing Turn ** [ Js ]
** Dealing River ** [ 4d ]
JohnnyChance shows [ Qc, Qs ] two pairs, queens and nines
drillfish shows [ X,X ]


Important stats for villain.
No. of hands-298
vpip/pfr 23/20 3bet 2.0%
4bet range 2.7% AA-QQ AK. 4bt% 14.
flop aggression 59% flop c/bet 93%
WWSF 69%
WTSD 28%

should i have just pushed pre?
was i too aggressive on the flop.
should i have found a fold or is this too weak?

i knew his 4bt range was tight.so i called the 4bet
to reassess after the flop.
also i had been splashing around with a lot of 3bets
myself, so I was hoping he may have been 4betting a
little lighter. I was expecting him to turn up
with AK about 40% of the time here. So i decided to check
raise the flop to try snap off a bluff with AK.
as soon as he called i knew i was beat and now im
thinking i probably played the hand wrong.

his potential hands QQ [1 hand]
kk [12]
AA [12]
AK [16]
total[41]

16/41 - 0.39 - 39%


any thoughts on how i could have played this better would be good. thanks in advance.

i hate my flop raise now, even if he had AK he will still win the hand 23% of the time and the pot was offering him 3.5-1. plus my range will have been wider to him so his play makes more sense.

his potential hands QQ [1 hand]
kk [6]
AA [6]
AK [16]
total[29]

16/29 - 55%

i got this wrong originally. i dont like my preflop call, i think i should have folded or stuck it in.

hi john
firstly i wouldnt put much stock in his 4bet% since it happens so rarely and w/ only 298 hands is almost meaningless, i dont use 4bet stat, i just make a judgement based on the 3 bet stat
fyi 2.7% seems tight, but is not for 4 bet at micros, my 4 bet stat is 1.7% up through 100nl, 100k+ hands

his 3bet % based on 298 hands is probably good enough to know he doesnt reraise light
since he doesnt reraise light-aka 3 bet, so a rereraise- 4 bet- is likely to be very tight

Having run into this situation many times vs a taggy type in micros
QQ is very rarely ahead here and i frequently folded here especially vs a 17/14 or anything nitty (yes it feels hugely weak), but A 23/20 types is more likely to make this play w/ JJ -88 or AK or even AQs. You can run pokerstove vs AA KK AK you can find your equity and do the pot odds calculation and then try it adding a bit looser range including lower pairs etc

Other things to consider.
Stack size, 4 bettor he has a full stack so implied odds about 8/1 not good. if he were 2 stacks deep like you, then trying to spike a set is worth it since doubling up when 2 stacks deep is a rare but sweet opportunity and 16/1 implied odds are sufficient. If he had only a partial stack then that is different. No implied odds, but probably changes his range and how he plays it, so that changes your response as well. What range did original pfr have, ie were a lot of Ax hands in his range, they block AK for 4 bettor. 4 bettor raised 2 players cold!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YIKes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Most micro tags call in this spot w/ AK, what do you do in this spot? always a good range read check.

bottom line vs another deep stack i call, no worse will call a 5 bet
vs a 1/2 to 2/3 stack i tend to call and get it in on any non A or K flop, i may still get it in , if oop i would to tend to check call since i expect his entire range to cbet, if in position depending on my read and position since his cbet oop is a bit stronger
vs a 1/2 or less stack i just shove, except vs a very nitty player, then i revert to above

vs a full stack like here, i tend to fold feeling like a very big wuss, but feeling good about it a few hands later when a better situation appears

hg

JimmyChances wrote:i hate my flop raise now, even if he had AK he will still win the hand 23% of the time and the pot was offering him 3.5-1. plus my range will have been wider to him so his play makes more sense.

This is a great point about equity and got me thinking about the hand a bit more. If you look at the situation from start to finish it is very difficult for the QQ to create a positive EV situation in this hand. This does assume the 4 bettor has a very tight range ie AA KK AK. If we look at this situation and equity of QQ at the various stages of the hand it looks something like this.

preflop after the 4 bet
pot is 0.30 blinds + 0.60 + 2.20 + 7.50=10.30
hero stack 81
villian stack 35

if hero calls pot is 16 and stacks are
hero stack 76
villian stack 35

** Dealing Flop ** [ 9h, 9s, 5h ]

This is the only real chance to get to a + EV situation, but it can only happen if opponent has AK preferably w/ no heart, or pair less than QQ. A bet of 12 here offers AK 2.3/1 w/ only 6 outs which have about a 1/8 chance to improve to best hand. Of course if the opponent has AA or KK you can expect a push, also if they 4 bet a pair worse than QQ or AK they may well shove after you only called preflop putting you in an ugly spot either way.

Once hero checks and villian bets any raise has effectively forced AK to call since pot is 16+16+35=67, and villian is getting 3.5/1 and has 23% equity w/ AK as John described. Which actually give AK a slightly better EV situation than a preflop shove where QQ is a 55/45 favorite. If villian has 1 heart they became a very slight favorite, if they woke up with AhKh, they are a big favorite EV wise

The best possible situation is hero checks, villian checks behind and no A or K hits on turn, then a hero donk bet would have AK or a JJ- in a + EV situation for the hero. Of course you shouldnt be surprised to see villian shove over a turn donk bet here w/ sloplayed KK or especially AA

Going back to preflop

preflop after the 4 bet
pot is 0.30 blinds + 0.60 + 2.20 + 7.50=10.30
hero stack 81
villian stack 35
if hero 5 bets they is little reason to believe a cold 4 bettor will fold so the best situation the hero can create is by pushing so pot becomes
10.30+ 5.20+35=50
and villian needs to call 35 to win 50 or 1.4/1
since AK 45/55 underdog or 1.2/1 to lose they are + EV to Call, there is a very small chance the 4 bettor could find a fold here w/ AK but dont hold your breath, It is obviously getting called by KK or AA. A lower pr like JJ or TT might fold, of course you are praying for a JJ call which i have seen, but again almost no full stacked Tags will make that move. So again there are no good + EV options for QQ vs the assumed range for a Tag making a cold 4 bet

I think this makes a preflop laydown feel a bit wiser and less weak

hg