Hey guys, how's it going.

I played a session that involved this hand and was looking for some thoughts on it.

Guy runs 25/3 over 60 hands and has cbet of 100%
***** Hand History for Game 2293508141 ***** (Bodog)
$10.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, October 24, 01:50:14 ET 2011
Table Iware (max 6) (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Seat 1: pokerstud1979 ( $9.10 USD )
Seat 2: tattoopopaperks ( $9.85 USD )
Seat 3: IamSoL ( $9.55 USD )
Seat 4: pigcrab ( $10.00 USD )
Seat 5: Cudaflu ( $13.60 USD )
Seat 6: benja73 ( $11.85 USD )
Cudaflu posts small blind [$0.05 USD].
benja73 posts big blind [$0.10 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Cudaflu [ 3c 3s ]
pokerstud1979 raises [$0.35 USD]
tattoopopaperks folds
IamSoL calls [$0.35 USD]
Cudaflu calls [$0.30 USD]
benja73 folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kh, 7h, 7d ]
Cudaflu checks
pokerstud1979 bets [$0.65 USD]
IamSoL folds
Cudaflu raises [$1.90 USD]
pokerstud1979 calls [$1.25 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4h ]
Cudaflu bets [$3.10 USD]
pokerstud1979 calls [$3.10 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 6h ]
Cudaflu bets [$3.80 USD]
pokerstud1979 calls [$3.75 USD]
Cudaflu wins $0.05 USD
pokerstud1979 shows [ ]
Cudaflu shows [3c, 3s ]
pokerstud1979 wins $17.75 USD from main pot

Preflop I'm obviously set mining against nit's super strong range.

Ok, when we punch 3% into pokerstove we get 99+ and AKs, so I think he cbets this board with 100% of his range (I'm going to also include AKo and potential KQs). With a raise I expect to usually fold out 99-QQ, raise AA/KK and flat AK or possible KQ.

He tanks until he is about to time out on the flop and then calls and I'm thinking that I can barrel any heart, and even most blanks as I would think he is fairly weak here (or perceives himself to be) and represent 7x (I don't think he would be on the level of thinking to see that I have almost 0 7x in my range). When the heart comes it's easy barrel and I fire 3/5 pot. He again times all the way down and calls at the last second.

The river brings four to a flush and this is where, looking back, I should have just given up imo (trying not to be results oriented). I think most of his calling range on the turn is hands like AhKx, KxQh, QhQx, etc. At the time I was thinking he would be forced to fold any non flush hand, but I don't think he has to many at this point. Hindsight is 20/20 as they say. Also, he has 4:1 odds on call, so I also should have bet turn like $2.5 probably. Do you guys think there is any river I can profitably barrel in this spot against his perceived range?

I know this goes a little beyond ABC fundamentals to beat micros, especially bodog, but getting in spots like this is imperative for me to stay interested in only four tabling or else I just start to autopilot. Also will help me prep for higher limits, assuming I get there.

I'll reveal what he had after there is a little discussion.

GL at the tables!

Hi Cudaflu,

I dont like this spot because you are oop and you have no chance in the hand except to get him to fold. He has a tight range and has shown strength preflop, opening in 2nd position, and he has had the guts to cbet in a mulitway pot. Without doing hand reading, i'd say its hard to get him off the hand after he calls your raise on the flop!

With this in mind I would have chosen to fold after the cbet. Although I dont know much about his postflop style. If he is a station he might be tempted to call your raise wider. Only if you have a strong read like that I would try to rep the flush on the turn.

I wouldnt know what hand he might give up after calling your raise on the flop and your bet on the turn. I think he would consider himself committed at that point and call your riverbet with any river card.

Cheers!

legian62 wrote:Hi Cudaflu,

I dont like this spot because you are oop and you have no chance in the hand except to get him to fold. He has a tight range and has shown strength preflop, opening in 2nd position, and he has had the guts to cbet in a mulitway pot. Without doing hand reading, i'd say its hard to get him off the hand after he calls your raise on the flop!

With this in mind I would have chosen to fold after the cbet. Although I dont know much about his postflop style. If he is a station he might be tempted to call your raise wider. Only if you have a strong read like that I would try to rep the flush on the turn.

I wouldnt know what hand he might give up after calling your raise on the flop and your bet on the turn. I think he would consider himself committed at that point and call your riverbet with any river card.

Cheers!

i agree w/ Legion
i dont think a nit Cbets too often multiway on a Kxx flop as it is so common Kx to be a pfr calling hand
Once he calls flop checkraise, he is virtually never folding, i think your best chance to create a fold was w/ a shove on the turn heart which could fold out Kx with no heart kicker. When your turn bet got called even on a 4 flush you will get called a lot w/ naked K given the pots odds and little tiny remaing stack (and it is 10nl). He decided to stack off when he called the turn, he has to have a better pair or draw to call turn, likely both.

i get your thought on trying situations to prevent boredom and be ready for higher stakes. having been down that road i would just say that you will be better off now and at future limits by really focusing on analyzing opponents for leaks and exploiting those leaks rather than forcing more marginal situations. I have been struggling w/ that exact issue all year as i had gotten a bit bored/disinterested/cocky and really started to force more marginal situations w/ unimpressive results barely above breakeven. I am now trying to get back to the more value based style that had been successful and let me move up stake levels. The challenge becomes correctly identifying opponents leaks as you move up levels. The leaks are basically the same, but not as obvious or often as at the lower stakes, so the challenge is to be more efficient exploiting opponents to create a good winrate, rather than forcing too many creative wins

hg

Believe me, I c/f this board a vast majority of the time. You don't think there is any value in raising a nit in this spot? Isn't a nits biggest leak the fact that he is to afraid to get to showdown/put money in the pot with the worst hand?

I agree river is complete spew and really bad in general due to poor turn bet sizing but you think this play is -EV in a vacuum(assuming better bet sizing)? No prior history except when I was set mining 88 and flop came something like QJx and I c/f to cbet so he has no reason to suspect I would be getting out of line against him because of history.

I think timing tells are big here as well. Weaker players give off obvious timing tells, and the fact that he timed literally all the way down before making crying call on flop means he would be weak here most of the time imo.

The guy might be more of a station then I had suspected because he showed up with 99 with a heart but I had no reason to think he was anything but standard nit at the time with WTSD of 18% (lol sample size).

I guess you can never overestimate the quality of a player at bodog, especially 10nl.

Looking back I think that last post reads a lot like "I'm right, you're wrong", but it's not meant to be as I know you are a better and more experienced player then I.

I would like it if you could elaborate on how else you would exploit 25/3 100% cbet guy other then attack his limps and look to out-cooler him. This just seems like good spot to bluff raise a board where he won't usually have much and I have no equity in calling and just eat 3.5bb loss with a fold.

Also, wouldn't making these plays in good spots still be profitable at any level theoretically if done to correct opponent in correct spot? I know it's 10nl, but I think a lot of guys with these stats are folding their nines on this board.

Hi Cudaflu,

I think a 25/3 100% player can be exploited indeed, but the number of spots you can do this in is not so great.

First of all: he (roughly) opens 3% of hands. So that means most of hands are made hands, no wonder he can cbet a 100%. Other passive players with stats like 12/10, or weak tight players, ie 17/13 have many unmade hands and it's easier to attack their cbet because you have more fold equity because of their weaker range.

If you want to attack a 3% guy I would consider his position (if he opens in later position he might have a wider range with some more unmade hands). Also I would prefer to do it heads up, because if he cbets multiway this makes him look even stronger.

In this case the board is dry enough to know that he likes it when he calls your raise. I would prefer to barrel if I have more outs to improve my hand. Also most certainly I would want to know if he is a station or a fit or fold type (does he give up with after he gets played back at). So I think a read on is style is important.

You have to play and combine the concepts of position/read/board texture/fold equity and your own hand equity. If you would have been heads up or if you had position or if the board was more wet it would be better spot, but you are still up against a very strong range and you dont know if he is willing to give up easily.

I think its best to accept that in this hand your plan was to setmine and that it didnt work out.

So far my modest opinion

greetz

i think legion makes great points on how to exploit 25/3. There wll be limited places to exploit him, but set mining is definitely one of them since his pfr range is so high in QQ+. When no set appears and he bets flop 33 is a muck. that was the plan, stick with it vs such a predictable opponent

The other spot to punish this type nit is raising his limps w/ hands he should be pfr as they tend to fold alot especially when you have position. In general nits are not the players you make a whole lot of money off, but you should be a winner against them over the long run. Their weakness isnt so much that you can run them over and beat them for big $$$$ as it is they lose a lot of value vs. other weak/loose players by not raising KQ AJ type hands when appropriate.

Lastly, while i am quite comfortable putting most players on a general style over 60 hands. Opponent is tightish w/ nittish tendencies etc. I need more info on how he plays middle pairs on a K77 type flop before i will try a bluff repping the K. Some will fold (although you will never be sure), most tend to get stubborn and station up till the end, a great note to have. Take him to valuetown w/ confidence and expect 3 streets of value w/ just a top pair type hand in the future.

oops, now lastly, on timing tells, when they time down and call, they rarely fold to next bet in my experience. They thought about it and convinced themselves to call and typically stick with the decision to the bloody end. Skip bluffville and wait for valuetown.

hg

Sorry for late response, been busy with school.

Thanks goes out to both of you for multiple helpful responses.

Guess I just need a better read before I make moves like this (or just don't make moves like this).

Interesting thought on timing tells when they end up tank calling. Probably right that he just decided he wasn't folding.

glglgl