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Variance, fish, etc...a question.

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Variance, fish, etc...a question.

Postby NotNuts » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:20 pm

I understand the importance of table selection, even though I may not practice it that well. I understand the tight aggresive style and try to incorporate it as my own. I appreciate that variance is a part of the game even though I wish I could just keep winning (wouldn't that be nice!). I am happy that fish are also apart of this game, even though they won't fold when behind, no matter how bad the pot odds are (what are those?), then spikes his unlikely runner, runner.. I accept that they are the bread and butter, and plate and knife, of this game. What I don't understand is how they can all converge on one night, at one site and totally obliterate a bankroll. This will not be a bad beat story.

Last night on Absolute, the fish were abundant. I played maybe 6 or 8 seperate tables and there would be no less than 3 45%ers vpip at each table. Table selection is usually 20 to 35% players in pot and pot size is usually .80 to $1.50 in size (6max 10NL). Last night the numbers were 30 to 55% and pot sizes of $2 to $4+. It looked rather juicy! Unfortunately by the end, it was I who was pulp. Fairly card dead, so I played tight. When I did get a hand (QQ), pfr in position, 3 or more callers. AKx on flop and I'm folding. I Hit trips, no worries, your 34o was a good call pf oop, into my raise. cause there's the 65s, giving you a whopping 6 outs. Sure, call my over bets, your golden!. 2 on the river? Could it be anything but? (Rant now complete)

My question is this;

When the fish have formed such a large school, that even changing tables just puts you in new water but the same fish, do I continue to play, or should I just call it a night. Should I even buy in to begin with, with so many donkey's playing the game at once. They were even laughing in the chatbox about it.

Down 9 buy-ins by the time I just gave up. I was going to leave earlier but tilt started to set in, which is always +EV.

One positive was that was able to flag alot of fish last night. Found some of them today, and low and behold, they play the same but the chips aren't sliding the same direction today.

Marpet
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Re: Variance, fish, etc...a question.

Postby wills2864 » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:30 pm

ive bin findinding if uve got a few fish to your left it can become hard work and -ev, but if u manage to get on the left of 1 or 2 its ideal for isolating them, they suck out on you now and again but keep value betting your strong hands and it works out in the end.
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Re: Variance, fish, etc...a question.

Postby hockeyguy » Sun Sep 19, 2010 12:04 pm

i understand your frustration

having recently had a couple rugged streaks in the microchallenge, including a minus 9 buyin session that i would have previouly believed couldnt happen at the 25 nl level. However, I am confident that i am much more knowlegdeable and skilled player than those at 25 nl so that session was shocking, frustrating, and quite humbling, but it also gave me a new perspective on variance. I have to simply look at my long term results and know i will come out ahead even if the ride is not as smooth as i expected. This is much easier now that some time has passed than it was right after the ridiculously bad session.

As far as tables full of fish, i am fine with that situation and expect it to be more profitable that a table with fewer fish, but i also expect more variance. Bad players make bad plays which result in bad beats, more bad players equals more bad plays, but this creates more frequent+ EV situations for you which is a good thing. For instance if everyone chases gut shots, you will see them hit it more often than at a table of tighter players, but the gutshots will still only hit1/11 so you have more positive EV chances to bet vs a table of fishes.

The challenge at a table of fishes is to stay focused and disciplined when the fishes get a series os suckouts that can be maddening

hg
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Re: Variance, fish, etc...a question.

Postby cliff48 » Sun Sep 19, 2010 1:02 pm

Hey guys:

I have figured out that I am running +2BB over 30K hands. I am finding that Cbets get very little respect anymore but if I bet again on the turn I will get more to fold than not if they do not have a hand. Also running into a lot of river shoves which I do not think I am calling enough. Anyway I think these games are getting a little tougher. Just my 2cents.

Cliff
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Re: Variance, fish, etc...a question.

Postby hockeyguy » Sun Sep 19, 2010 4:36 pm

hi cliff
you might want to post an example of the river shoves for comments if you are unclear on fold or call

hg
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