I have heard the term being priced in on a hand. I am not sure what this means.

basically it is a pot odds calulation

for instance

i have AJs
flop comes K73 giving me a flush draw and an overcard
lets say i know he has KQ
pot is 10 and he bets his last 5
pot is 15, i have to call 5 to win 15
i am getting 3/1 and have 12 outs
12 outs make me about a 50/50 to suckout
(12 outs with 45 cards left-52 - your AJ, his KQ, flop K73, 12/45 on turn and river = 1/4+1/4=1/2 or 50%)
so my payout odds to suckout is bigger than my chance to win

in the long run i will win 1 in very 2 hands
so i pay 5 and lose once
and i pay 5 and win the other time for the 15 in the pot
net result i paid 10 and won 15 over the 2 hands
therefore i am priced in and MUST CALL since i will win in the long run

hope this clarifies
hg

Thanks for the reply HG. I should have been explicit in my question as I was interested in preflop. Suppose I hold AJ suited in the big blind and the pot has been raised from UTG by a 14% PFR player and called by the CO with a 23/18 VPIP/PFR stat. In this example I am 1.82 to 1 dog 64.5% to 35.5% getting 2 to 1 for my money. Is this enough to offset playing OOP?

no worries Skinny

I think this is a very good question and a lot of players are unclear how to proceed in this situation. I was really bad at these when I joined OP. I am much better at these now although I would be fine if I never saw another one in my poker career

Just for clarity for everyone I think most players think about the term "priced in" as referring to the type of situation I described where no more money can go into the pot so that the correct decision is basically as I described above. Or if you are getting 5/1 or better on a str8 or flush draw you are priced in to call even if your draw might not be good if you hit. The situation you are interested in is more of an implied odds question combined with the chances of being dominated scenario.

So let’s look at the scenario you described

skinnydipper wrote:I hold AJ suited in the big blind and the pot has been raised from UTG by a 14% PFR player and called by the CO with a 23/18 VPIP/PFR stat. In this example I am 1.82 to 1 dog 64.5% to 35.5% getting 2 to 1 for my money. Is this enough to offset playing OOP?

The first thing I would say it depends a bit what stakes level you are playing. I will assume 25nl for the moment. I will also assume 14% pfr is position specific meaning villain 1 pfr utg is 14% (if V1 is 14% overall I would assume his pfr is much tighter and this would typically force me to fold since alot of the JX hands i have dominated would be gone from his range- this is why pfr by position is a unbelievably important stat at micros). A call by villian2 TAG in CO is AQ/22-TT/sOOted broadway type hands or some sOOted connector hand typically (3 bet stats are hugely helpful here, but it is virtually certain he doesn’t have AA KK and QQ AK are unlikely since no 3 bet).

So looking at pokerstove 14% pfr range of V1 is approximately
77+, ATo+, QJo+, JTs+, A8s+-
28 hands total
AQ+, JJ + have you in bad shape-8 hands total= 8/28= 28% of v1 range
another 4 hands 77-TT are a coin flip= 14%
The other 52% of V1 pfr range you are actually a favorite

I think AJo is standard fold and look for better spot, but being sOOted gives an extra pip of value which i think i would rather use to take the initiative. So I think a better question is call or 3 bet, Given that the V2 call means weakness and he is virtually never going to call a 3 bet he has basically donated whatever money he put in the pot if you 3 bet. Also assuming you haven’t abused the squeezing privilege a 3 bet oop vs. a utg pfr and a caller means you have a big hand (this is especially true at 50nl and below) Given that you are getting better than 2/1 on your money since you are in the bb for a call ( if pfr was 3bb there are 7.5bb in pot and you only need to call 2bb-3.5/1, if pfr was 4bb- 9.5bb and 3 to call gives3/1+) these are pretty good odds and I get the desire to call, i used to do it all the time.

However if you 3 bet to 4x the pfr you have to put in 12bb to win 7.5bb or 16bb to win 9.5bb. So you only have to win pot 62.5% vs. a 3bb pfr or 59% of the time vs. 4bb pfr to show a profit. Given most micro tags will reraise AA KK and call AK QQ in this situation(which is about 4% of his 14% pfr- or 28% of his pfr range) and fold most other hands (72% of his range) a 3 bet here is going to show a profit since you only need 62% to break even.

I think 3 betting in this situation is a big part of separating yourself from the average TAGs at 50nl and below and is profitable in the long run. When i was starting to work this type of play into my game i basically decided that i wasn’t good enough at hand/opponent reading to figure out which flops to cbet so i made the decision that i would basically cbet any time I 3 bet and see what happens (it wasn’t always easy, but try it). Happily, i was pleasantly surprised and it proved something i saw in a book by David Sklansky “they can’t fold if you don’t bet” and they will fold ALOT!!!!!!!!!!!. Just because we went through a logical approximation of the opponents hand range doesn’t mean V1 or V2 or both aren’t in there with weaker hands. AND IN FACT WE KNOW THEY WILL BE because we gave them credit for the top of possible range so they cannot be stronger than we think, but they will be in there with 56s or other stuff that cant continue to a 3 bet. When you run into a big hand or a hand that works out poorly (and you will) you take a note and move along, don’t let a few bad out comes cramp your aggression. You don’t stop raising AA just because they took a bad beat, same thing here.

Additional factors- your 3 bet turns V1 hand face up most times- he 4 bets AA KK, mostly calls a 3 bet w/ AK QQ JJ maybe AQs or some other pocket pair. If an A flops you can check call which can develop into a sticky situation if villain will 2 barrel (check postflop aggression), but they will typically cbet once and check down or just check down any non Ace hand (isn’t that what you usually do?). I like to cbet 2/3 pot. TT- will typically fold, if they have QQ- or AQ- they will call but they won’t bet later in hand on an A hi flop. AK will bet/raise so you can act accordingly postflop even oop. If you cbet A hi flop, get called, then check and they check behind- Bet the river as they will call KK- putting you on JJ TT etc and not an Ax hand. If you get raised on an A hi flop-MUCK, nobody at micros bluffs vs. a 3 bet on A hi flop. Your hand is hugely disguised if you make any flush or 2 pair or trips. If you get to showdown and show AJ you will get some looser action on later 3 bets so be aware. If the flop is K hi you can rep AK and fold out most pairs QQ or less, if you get called . Again “they can’t fold if you don’t bet” and they will fold ALOT!!!!!!!!!!!.

If you just call you risk being dominated by V1 or V2 on an A hi flop, you risk hitting top pr vs. a set from V1 or V2 both of which is especially ugly oop. I don’t hate a call as you can check call a good flop and chk fold a bad flop, but i prefer a 3 bet vs most micro opponents. You will need to be able to make this type of play if you want to move up and be successful.

In general i would rather play this hand heads up(hence the 3 bet to fold at least 1 opponent) or 4 way+. Heads up i would 3 bet and cbet most flops or maybe just call depending on the opponent. 4 way + i would just call to let others in and look to make a big hand that has more customers to pay me off.

Stake level considerations- Playing lower microstakes. At 10nl or less i would 3 bet everytime, at 25 i would generally 3 bet vs typical type tags for reasons above, at 50nl or 100nl I think it becomes more opponent specific and i would have more of a mix of fold, call, raise. If V1 folded alot to 3 bet, duh, i 3 bet, if they fold alot to cbet, i 3 bet, if they don’t fold a lot to 3 bet and cbet i would tend to call, if they were a bit tighter and stubborn calling 3 bets and cbets and aggro postflop i might even fold since i am oop and his subborness and aggression AND position combine to counteract any advantage i gain by taking initiative.

hope this is helpful
hg

Thanks HG for your reply. Your 2nd paragraph answered the question of being priced in. I totally agree with your senario regarding AJs a low micro stakes. I play 50NL so I play the hand solely opponent dependant and rely on 3 bet and 4 bet stats. Unfortunately there are still a lot of passive AK players.