dear poker gurus,

Bit lost in these situations, wondering what people think here. Villian is pretty tight 17/15ish, raising around 10% of flops.

I think its clear that this is KT (or is it? doubt villian is thinking il lay down AQ to a bluff) my question is really geared towards previous streets. Should we ever be leading the turn or reraising the flop?

The size of his 3 bet on flop makes me think he was going for a cheap free card on the turn, can we assume sets/2 pair would raise more to protect against all the draws?

This kind of spot comes up alot and im just like blaaaa what to do!!

Morrizio

Boss Media (IPN) No-Limit Hold'em, €0.50 BB (5 handed) - BossMedia Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) (€123.95)
MP (€21.47)
Button (€54.90)
SB (€69.22)
BB (€50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, Q
Hero bets €1.50, 1 fold, Button calls €1.50, 2 folds

Flop: (€3.75) J, 4, Q (2 players)
Hero bets €2.50, Button raises to €6.87, Hero calls €6.87

Turn: (€17.49) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: (€17.49) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets €21, Hero folds

Total pot: €17.49 | Rake: €0.85

Hey!

Im not a guru but this is a very interesting hand. Seems like KT as u said.
Why didnt you bet the turn if u thinked about KT or u have thought about this after the hand?

I look forward to see what the others say about this.

/Johan

morrizio wrote:This kind of spot comes up alot and im just like blaaaa what to do!!

Morrizio


Hero (UTG) (€123.95)
MP (€21.47)
Button (€54.90)
SB (€69.22)
BB (€50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, Q
Hero bets €1.50, 1 fold, Button calls €1.50, 2 folds

Flop: (€3.75) J, 4, Q (2 players)
Hero bets €2.50, Button raises to €6.87, Hero calls €6.87

Turn: (€17.49) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: (€17.49) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets €21, Hero folds

Total pot: €17.49 | Rake: €0.85

lets start at the begining
what does a tight player cold call a utg pfr with?
i assume qq+ 3 bet
any other pair- yep
AJs+ - yep
KQ QJ JT- maybe, most likely sOOted
KJ KT QT- possible, depends on what type of TAG he is, notes are super important here
some tags wont call w/ dominated broadway- i virtually never did when i was learning the basic OP style
other tags will call quite often w/ these hands- gotta know what type of tag you are up against in these type situations

not much else cold calling and likely going to be heads up

what does a tag raise flop with?
44, jj qj probably
AQ KQ maybe
AXs nut flush draw w/ over card or KT draw- maybe
AK or 56s type hand- very dependent on the tag
an under pair like 77 88 99- very unlikely on a floop that hits so many Abig/broadway hands that are not folding to a raise

now what made hand does he check behind on the turn after you call raise on flop? this is the critical question. After you call he should be betting any made big hand given you must have at least a gut shot w/ over(s) for 7+ outs you are calling a reasonable bet. When you check turn blank he takes free card, smells like a draw/weak hand. You check river blank also, smells like you have AK or TT-, he over bets pot. after you check 2 blanks does he really think you have a strong hand and will call? especially a big bet?

What does an overbet really want? a call if they have a big hand and a fold if they cant win at showdown.
So what does he think you will do if he bets after you showed weakness twice? Does he think you will fold more often to a 1/2 pot. 3/4 pot or overpot bet? I smell a missed draw trying to steal pot or strangely (and this happenns a lot) KQ trying to get AJ to payoff, they dont figure AQ would check twice w/ TPTK.
Would you?

i would snap call this every time, will i occasionally run into 444 jjj qj, yes, but i think AQ is good well over 50% which is hugely + ev to call. A pot bet offers 2/1 so only have to be right 1/3. The slight over pot bet only slightly worse so only have to be good 2/5 or so.

And here is another thought that lets me call, even if he went for some fancy play crap and you call when beat, HE STILL LOST VALUE.

Lets do the math
the hand as played
pot is 17 on turn
if he bets 9 and you call
pot is 35 on river
he bets 18, you call
he gets 27 from you post flop raise if you have a hand and he only bets 1/2 pot
he gets 9 if you have a draw/weak hand since you fold river miss draw and weak hands
NOTICE he would win much more with non 1/2 pot bets-12 on turn pot to 51, 20 on river
total win 32- THIS IS WHY WE DONT SLOWPLAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

using his FPS crap play if he has a big hand
he gets 21 from you post flop raise if you have a hand
he gets 0 if you have a draw/weak hand AND RISKS PAYING YOU OFF WHEN YOU HIT DRAW- talk about worst of both worlds

Looking at long term, this type situation will repeat many times , but they roles will be reversed about half the time. since you wont slopay in position w/ a monster 444 jjj QJ you will be way +EV in the long run by better play and betting your hand.

Reminder on where our winning comes from
not playing weak hands
getting more value from our made hands
clearly this is the latter

while i dont like calling when i am beat, i mind a lot less when i know i would have got more value if the roles were reversed.

hope this helps
hg

1 last thing

i like the river check as i dont see many worse hands calling if you bet except Qx, but it gives him a chance to bluff missed draws and he will almost certainly bet Qx and most Jx hands after you check twice. Your tptk is quite well disguised.

hg

GREAT analyze HockeyGuy, u really gave me some good thoughts here. This is candy for my current development. Before, this was to much information for me to understand and especially take with me while playing. It takes a while to get it to sink in. Im only playing 3 tables at the same time atm, and Im getting alot more practice with my hand readings now.

"i would snap call this every time" (this is cool, it fascinates me), this is really to be sure of your readings.

Great stuff Guys. More of this!

Good question and great analysis!

thanks guys!

Well essentially to get a real solution to any river call, you need to use the stove...

The first step is determining how much equity you would need against his range to make the call. In this scenario you would be risking 21 to win 38.5 meaning that for you to profitably call, you need to have 35% equity against his range.

The next step is the hard part. Determining his range. What's his 3bet%? Do you think he is going to 3 bet QQ or JJ? Don't you think he could take this line with QJ, KQ, and JT? AA-KK are probably out of his range since he checked the turn. He probably flatts PF with 22-1010 and since you didn't ever raise him after you got reraised, you can't rule out a set of 22 or 99. If we put KT into his range we are opening his range up pretty wide. Remember that he's only playing 17/15 which means that he's not flatting very frequently, but you really need to look at his positional stats to determine which hands he could have.

IMO, given the info we have, as far as non air hands we can put him on:

JJ,99,44,22,AQs,KTs+,AQo,KQo

That would kind of be like a value betting range for him.

Stove that range against our hand and we see that our AcQs has 42% equity against his range, SO if he NEVER has air in this spot (AKA he's always betting this river for value), you should probably call against this range. If you can pull some hands out of his range that you beat, you lose equity and if you think he is ever bluffing here, you increase your equity. It is also important to mention that you are losing more often than not against this range, but even though you are going to lose the majority of pots, you should still be calling since you need less equity than you think you currently have to make the call.

This is probably a pretty close decision between calling and folding, and I wouldn't fault either decision. Aggression is an important stat in this spot too. If the Villan never bets the river, you can probably fold most of the time as he isn't betting kq or kj for value and he is rarely bluffing. If he is aggressive on the river, you can maybe assume that he is value betting pairs of jacks and weaker queens while making bluffs if he thinks you are weak (you could easily have a draw that missed and he could have something like 78 with no showdown value). In that case, you have to call because you are looking at having WAY over the required 35% equity since you are at the top of your range.

So in conclusion, in a vaccum against a random guy, I call. If you have a decent read on the guy you can make a more informed decision on his range maybe fold. Obviously you aren't going to be able to stove a guys range before you run out of time, but you will get better at eyeballing your equity if you do enough practice calculations.

River decisions are typically just math problems.

As a side note, I think it is a huge mistake to try to put him on a specific hand here. K10 is such a small part of his range and there's a good chance he's only playing it if it's suited which means there's only 4 combos of it in his range. I also wouldn't rule out a hand like J9 or Q9 who was trying to bluff you on the flop and got there on the river.

Hi emitnulb!

Nice to follow your analyze aswell! Good learning.
U ended up with the same decision as Hockeyguy but with some other aspects.
Really nice to see them both.
I watched over it in Stove aswell.
This is really what the forums should be all about I think. Good stuff.

/Johan

Oh yeah, as for the earlier streets, I don't think you played it too bad. I wouldn't mind reraising the flop. If he shoves over the top, you can likely put him on a draw in which case you are a favorite and wouldn't mind getting it in with him. Obviously it sucks if he flips over a set or an over pair, but flopping TPTK on a draw heavy board, I don't mind getting it in before the draws have a chance to peel. If he flatts you, you are in a very tough spot. His range looks very strong at that point and you are OOP. IMO if you flat him on the flop you have to check call this turn because it's a blank and you won't get better hands to fold by reraising a turn bet. Might as well check the river too for the same reason, and then he forces you to make a decision about calling.

Yeah so like I said, I'm not big on flatting him, but it does disguise your hand. You look like a combo draw and you wouldnt have connected by the river, though I don't know what he would bet against you for value that you could beat seeing as you couldn't call with a busted flush draw. He would have to either have air or a sick hand to make this kind of bet. Maybe he puts you on a stubborn mid pair and he missed his diamond draw. Maybe I'm giving him too much credit though. He could just have AQ or KQ trying to get value from a weaker Q or lower pair since his line looks spazzy. But yeah, that's why I said it was a close call between calling and folding the river.

I understand. Nice to hear your thoughts. Btw,it wasnt me who played this hand,it was "morrizio"
Im so overly active here and u prob thought so therefore!

I guess morrizio will love those nice replies in his post!

emitnulb, whats your pokerhistory, cant u start a blog and tell some or update your profile when u have the time?
Always nice to hear about others.