Video#25 by atta22 AKo vs AJo all in

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Video#25 by atta22 AKo vs AJo all in

Postby janb » Mon Jan 05, 2009 5:40 pm

First thanks for your good explanation of all the actions you do at the table; It's really very interesting.

In this video 0,50/1NL you are in the BB;
utg limps
and utg+1 raises to 4,50
you 3-bet to 15 and
he 4-bets to 38 and after that you decided to go all in with your AKo which he calls with AJo

Regardless of the results: what would you have done with AQo?

Reason for this question is that I was on a 100NL table with a loose player;
stats of Repane (played 81 hands with him):
VPIP 47% // pfr 15% // 3bet 10% // fold to 3bet 100% // 4-bet 0%
limp 43% // WTSD 24% // W$SD 63% // aggression postflop 2.4

Hope these stats are enough to discuss the hand

Seat 1: Janb ( $118.80 USD )
Seat 2: patximino ( $102.35 USD )
Seat 3: Vincenzo69 ( $51.96 USD )
Seat 4: repane ( $90.97 USD )
Seat 5: vadim78 ( $187.00 USD )
Seat 6: bartforp ( $99.00 USD )
bartforp posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
Janb posts big blind [$1.00 USD].
Dealt to Janb [ Ad Qc ]
** Dealing down cards **
patximino folds
Vincenzo69 raises [$3.50 USD]
repane calls [$3.50 USD]
vadim78 folds
bartforp folds
Janb raises [$17.00 USD]
Vincenzo69 folds
repane raises [$29.00 USD]
Janb raises [$83.50 USD]
repane calls [$58.47 USD]
Janb wins $10.53 USD
Janb shows [Ad, Qc ]
repane shows [Ts, Td ]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Js, Jd, 5h ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2h ]
** Dealing River ** [ 6d ]
repane wins $182.94 USD from main pot

because of his stats and the showdowns I had seen I decided to put him all in for his last 60$

Is this just a donkey play or a good move.
janb
 
Posts: 2
Joined: Sat Jan 03, 2009 2:45 pm

Re: Video#25 by atta22 AKo vs AJo all in

Postby atta22 » Wed Jan 07, 2009 5:30 pm

Glad to hear you are doing well!

It's important to note that there's a big difference between AK and AQ.

If we take this opponent's 4-bet/call range, I'd say it's TT+ and AKo/AKs. It's possible that he'll show up with a hand like AQ or AJ as well, but to be conservative I didn't include those in his range:

Plugging this into Pokerstove (http://www.pokerstove.com - it's free):

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.365% 68.39% 00.98% 505871460 7235166.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 30.635% 29.66% 00.98% 219373536 7235166.00 { AQo }


We see that we have only 30% equity in the hand - so we shouldn't be too happy getting it all-in preflop against this opponent. I probably would fold AQ in this spot - he clearly likes his hand and isn't going to fold to your push.

However, if we have AKo, it changes:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.608% 46.38% 13.23% 314459700 89723532.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 40.392% 27.16% 13.23% 184165620 89723532.00 { AKo }


We now have 40% equity in the hand. Assuming he is going to call 100% of the time and given that you've already committed $17, you are risking $74 to win $112 (your 17 + his 91 + 3.50 + 0.50). So we need 74/186 or 39% equity to make this a profitable play. Since we have 40% equity against this range, a shove is correct. I didn't include the fact that he may show up with AQo/AJo or a completely random hand sometimes too, which increases your equity as well.
atta22
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